Bryce Harper vs. Aaron Judge – Who You Got?
Bryce Harper became a sensation when he was 16 years old, appearing on the cover of Sports Illustrated.
He forewent his final two years of high school (obtaining his GED) to enroll in junior college, making him draft eligible at the age of 18. He was selected 1/1 in the 2010 draft by the Washington Nationals. Harper signed a very unconventional deal — $9.9 million over five years, which included a $6.25 million signing bonus and eight semesters of college.
The Oakland Athletics selected Aaron Judge, a high school kid playing less than 90 minutes away in Linden, California, in the 31st round of that same draft, a mere 934 picks after Harper. Judge elected to go to Fresno State instead. Three years later the New York Yankees took Judge in the first round, with the 32nd pick. He received a $1.8 million signing bonus.
Harper made his MLB debut in 2012 at the tender age of 19. That season he played in 139 games, slashed .270/.340/.477, with 22 home runs, and a 118 OPS+. He was an All-Star and won the Rookie of the Year.
Judge made his MLB debut in 2016, at the seasoned age of 24. That year he played in just 27 games, and looked overmatched, slashing .179/.263/.345, with four home runs. He had an OPS+ of 61, and was worth -0.3 bWAR. But, with his rookie status still intact, he corrected whatever ailed him, and came out guns-a-blazing in 2017. Playing in 155 games, he slashed .284/.422/.627, with 52 home runs and a 171 OPS+. It was an 8.1 bWAR season that saw him become an All-Star, win a Silver Slugger Award, come in second in MVP voting, and win the Rookie of the Year.
Because they started at different times, Harper is now in his 14th season, while Judge is in just his tenth. As of Tuesday morning, Harper’s baseball card looks like this:
.280/.387/.521; 142 OPS+; 357 HR; 1034 RBI; Rookie of the Year; 8x All-Star; 2x MVP
Judge’s looks like this:
.293/.410/.613; 177 OPS+; 354 HR; 807 RBI; Rookie of the Year; 7x All-Star; 2x MVP
In March of 2019, Harper signed a 13-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies for $330 million, which, at the time, was the largest free agent contract in terms of total dollars, in baseball history. The deal has no opt outs, so Harper will play in the City of Brotherly Love through the 2031 season, when he will be 38 years old.
In December of 2022, Judge signed a 9-year deal with the Yankees for $360 million, which, at the time, was the largest free agent contract in terms of total dollars, in baseball history. The deal has no opt outs, so Judge will play in the City that Never Sleeps through the 2031 season, when he will be 38 years old.
When Judge’s contract expires, he will have earned a hair less than $400 million. Harper’s deal nets him just under $378 million, but his contract includes a handful of incentives ($500K for an MVP; $100K for a World Series MVP; and $50K for each of certain seasonal awards), which have given him another $800,000 with six years still to go.
By many accounts, Aaron Judge is the best right-handed hitter of his generation, and potentially of all-time. He is averaging 52 home runs per every 162 games. If he kept that pace going for the next six seasons (highly unlikely, but worth the analysis), he will become a free agent sitting somewhere around 650 homers. That is one good season away from A-Rod (696) and Albert Pujols (703); and a remarkable season away from The Babe (714). Extrapolate those numbers out, and he would be two good seasons (by Judgian standards) away from Henry Aaron and Barry Bonds.
Harper, on the other hand, will not reach such lofty heights. He is not the best left-handed hitter of his generation (but he is probably in the top-five), and most certainly not the best of all-time. His power will not allow him to amass the types of numbers that Judge has in his sights, but 500 dingers are well within reach (he needs to average less than 25-per-year over the next six seasons to join that club). Harper may have been the “Chosen One,” and will most likely fulfill all of his promise and more. But his career stats may ultimately pale in comparison to Judge’s.
Yet, to date, neither player has brought a World Series title to their city. Do that – and do it more than once – and the rest of the stats will fall by the wayside when local legends are written. As it stands, Harper’s home run in the eighth inning of Game 5 of the 2022 National League Championship Series to push his team to the World Series
probably ranks higher than Judge’s 62nd home run in Texas to break the American League single-season record, in terms of stories people will tell their grandkids about.
Both the Phillies and the Yankees have been built for post-season success. As of right now, Philadelphia looks like the best team in the National League, while the Yankees are faltering. That all could change over the next two months. And both players still have six more years to burnish their credentials. Only time will tell who has the better overall career. But, in the end, it may not matter, as we fans are just lucky to get to enjoy two of the best who have ever done it.
PLAY BALL!!
