Month: August 2025

Don Mattingly Is a Hero and Nomar Garciaparra Is Not Much Discussed, and Yet Their Careers Numbers Are Shockingly Similar

Sometimes it is fun to look at two wholly different players and see how very similar they were. Today we will look at two guys who essentially played on opposite sides of second base*, one of whom stayed on the Hall of Fame ballot for 15 years, topping out at 28.2% of the vote; and one of whom barely made it to year two, and then fell off the ballot the following year after receiving only 1.8% of the vote.

DON MATTINGLY

Don Mattingly – “Donnie Baseball” – was an institution in New York in the ‘80s. The sweet swinging first baseman came up for seven games at the end of the 1982 season, played in 91 games in 1983, and then made his mark in 1984. That year, Mattingly led the league in hits (207), doubles (44), and won the batting title hitting .343. He came in fifth in MVP voting.

That was just a stepping stone to his 1985 campaign, when he had 211 hits, 48 doubles, 35 homers, led the league with 145 RBI and 370 total bases, had a 156 OPS+, made his second All-Star team, won a Gold Glove, won a Silver Slugger award, and then won the AL MVP.

All of which set the stage for 1986, when all Mattingly did was again lead the league with: 238 hits, 53 doubles, a .573 slugging percentage, a .967 OPS, 388 total bases, and a (career high) 161 OPS+. This got him all of the same awards as 1985, except he came in second in MVP voting to Roger Clemens.

1987 was pretty much more of the same for the mustachioed slugger, as he smashed 30 home runs and accumulated 318 total bases, while still slashing .327/.378/.559, for a 146 OPS+. That was good enough for seventh in MVP voting.

A back injury in the middle of 1987 was the beginning of the end. While he still put up impressive numbers the rest of that year, things began to slow down in 1988. Over the 1988-1989 seasons, Mattingly hit a total 41 homers and had 201 RBI, and still won two more Gold Gloves.

In 1990, Mattingly’s back caused him to miss a big chunk of the season, and he ultimately played in only 102 games. That was the first of his two negative bWAR seasons (-0.3, along with -0.2 in his final year, 1995).

Mattingly bravely played out the final years of his career. From 1991-1995, he managed 752 hits and 154 doubles. But the power was zapped – he hit only 53 homers over those five seasons, and only drove in 340 runs. He hit .291, but slugged just .416. (By way of comparison, from 1984-1989, he hit .327 with a .530 slugging percentage.)

Mattingly went on to coach and manage in the big leagues, and still does not have to buy a drink anywhere in New York. The man is a legend, who many believe would have been a surefire Hall of Famer but for the bad back.

*Mattingly played third base when play resumed for the infamous “pine tar” game.

NOMAR GARCIAPARRA

The Boston Red Sox drafted Nomar Garciaparra with the 12th pick in the 1994 draft out of Georgia Tech. He made his major league debut in 1996, playing in 24 games. In his official rookie campaign, 1997, “Nomah” led the league in hits with 209, and triples with 11. He was an All-Star, won a Silver Slugger award, finished 8th in MVP voting, and was the American League Rookie of the Year.

In his sophomore season, he hit more homers, drove in more runs, had better slash numbers, and a higher OPS+. That was good enough for second place in MVP voting.

In 1999 and 2000, Garciaparra won back-to-back batting titles, while also hitting 48 home runs, smacking 93 doubles, and accumulating 638 total bases over the two seasons. That gave him two more All-Star appearances and two more top-10 MVP finishes.

A wrist injury postponed the start of his 2001 season until July 29th. The injury reared its head again at the end of August, and Garciaparra finished the year with just 83 at-bats.

The shortstop was healed in 2002, slashing .310/.352/.528, with 56 doubles to lead the league. He was, once again, an All-Star. 2003 – his last full year in Boston – was very similar to 2002. Unfortunately, negotiations between the team and the player for a long-term extension stalled, leaving the shortstop’s future with the club in limbo.

Garciaparra started the 2004 season on the injured list with an Achilles issue. When he got back to action, his bat returned to normal, but his defense faltered. And the requirement of extra rest to keep him healthy meant that even his bat could not be counted on every day. At the trade deadline, Boston’s youthful and ambitious general manager, Theo Epstein, decided that he could replace Garciaparra’s bat and improve the team’s defense by sending the fan favorite to the Chicago Cubs as part of a four-team trade, which netted the Sox Orlando Cabrera (a much better defensive shortstop) and Doug Mientkiewicz (a fine defensive first baseman).

Epstein was not wrong. Starting in 2004, Garciaparra became negative total zone rated shortstop (-12 in 2004; -5 in 2005). He did have a +4 in 2008 when he played 31 games at short for the Dodgers. But, as with many aspects of the game, Epstein could see the future, and he planned for it. It is not lost on Red Sox fans that Cabrera had a 10-game hitting streak between Game 1 of the 2004 ALCS and Game 3 of the World Series; nor is it lost on them that Mientkiewicz recorded the put-out that ended an 86-year World Series drought.

Garciaparra signed free agent contracts with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the 2006-2008 seasons, and has become an institution with the team. He has been a broadcast mainstay for years — he now does commentary for local stations — and can be seem at the ballpark most days.

WHO YOU GOT?

But if you were to ask the average fan on the street who had a better career, Mattingly’s name would roll off tongues. You wouldn’t hear many arguments that “but for” anything in particular that Garciaparra would be in the Hall of Fame. You don’t see many Nomar jerseys in the stands at either Fenway Park or Dodger Stadium. Both players had “what-if” careers. It is just how they are viewed that is so different. However, when you look at them side-by-side, they are not that different at all.

Bryce Harper vs. Aaron Judge – Who You Got?

Bryce Harper became a sensation when he was 16 years old, appearing on the cover of Sports Illustrated.

He forewent his final two years of high school (obtaining his GED) to enroll in junior college, making him draft eligible at the age of 18. He was selected 1/1 in the 2010 draft by the Washington Nationals. Harper signed a very unconventional deal — $9.9 million over five years, which included a $6.25 million signing bonus and eight semesters of college.

The Oakland Athletics selected Aaron Judge, a high school kid playing less than 90 minutes away in Linden, California, in the 31st round of that same draft, a mere 934 picks after Harper. Judge elected to go to Fresno State instead. Three years later the New York Yankees took Judge in the first round, with the 32nd pick. He received a $1.8 million signing bonus.

Harper made his MLB debut in 2012 at the tender age of 19. That season he played in 139 games, slashed .270/.340/.477, with 22 home runs, and a 118 OPS+. He was an All-Star and won the Rookie of the Year.

Judge made his MLB debut in 2016, at the seasoned age of 24. That year he played in just 27 games, and looked overmatched, slashing .179/.263/.345, with four home runs. He had an OPS+ of 61, and was worth -0.3 bWAR. But, with his rookie status still intact, he corrected whatever ailed him, and came out guns-a-blazing in 2017. Playing in 155 games, he slashed .284/.422/.627, with 52 home runs and a 171 OPS+. It was an 8.1 bWAR season that saw him become an All-Star, win a Silver Slugger Award, come in second in MVP voting, and win the Rookie of the Year.

Because they started at different times, Harper is now in his 14th season, while Judge is in just his tenth. As of Tuesday morning, Harper’s baseball card looks like this:

.280/.387/.521; 142 OPS+; 357 HR; 1034 RBI; Rookie of the Year; 8x All-Star; 2x MVP

Judge’s looks like this:

.293/.410/.613; 177 OPS+; 354 HR; 807 RBI; Rookie of the Year; 7x All-Star; 2x MVP

In March of 2019, Harper signed a 13-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies for $330 million, which, at the time, was the largest free agent contract in terms of total dollars, in baseball history. The deal has no opt outs, so Harper will play in the City of Brotherly Love through the 2031 season, when he will be 38 years old.

In December of 2022, Judge signed a 9-year deal with the Yankees for $360 million, which, at the time, was the largest free agent contract in terms of total dollars, in baseball history. The deal has no opt outs, so Judge will play in the City that Never Sleeps through the 2031 season, when he will be 38 years old.

When Judge’s contract expires, he will have earned a hair less than $400 million. Harper’s deal nets him just under $378 million, but his contract includes a handful of incentives ($500K for an MVP; $100K for a World Series MVP; and $50K for each of certain seasonal awards), which have given him another $800,000 with six years still to go.

By many accounts, Aaron Judge is the best right-handed hitter of his generation, and potentially of all-time. He is averaging 52 home runs per every 162 games. If he kept that pace going for the next six seasons (highly unlikely, but worth the analysis), he will become a free agent sitting somewhere around 650 homers. That is one good season away from A-Rod (696) and Albert Pujols (703); and a remarkable season away from The Babe (714). Extrapolate those numbers out, and he would be two good seasons (by Judgian standards) away from Henry Aaron and Barry Bonds.

Harper, on the other hand, will not reach such lofty heights. He is not the best left-handed hitter of his generation (but he is probably in the top-five), and most certainly not the best of all-time. His power will not allow him to amass the types of numbers that Judge has in his sights, but 500 dingers are well within reach (he needs to average less than 25-per-year over the next six seasons to join that club). Harper may have been the “Chosen One,” and will most likely fulfill all of his promise and more. But his career stats may ultimately pale in comparison to Judge’s.

Yet, to date, neither player has brought a World Series title to their city. Do that – and do it more than once – and the rest of the stats will fall by the wayside when local legends are written. As it stands, Harper’s home run in the eighth inning of Game 5 of the 2022 National League Championship Series to push his team to the World Series

probably ranks higher than Judge’s 62nd home run in Texas to break the American League single-season record, in terms of stories people will tell their grandkids about.

Both the Phillies and the Yankees have been built for post-season success. As of right now, Philadelphia looks like the best team in the National League, while the Yankees are faltering. That all could change over the next two months. And both players still have six more years to burnish their credentials. Only time will tell who has the better overall career. But, in the end, it may not matter, as we fans are just lucky to get to enjoy two of the best who have ever done it.

PLAY BALL!!