Opening Day Performances May or May Not Be a Sign of Long-Term Success
Last Thursday was MLB’s Opening Day. A day of renewal, as teams start the season with a clean slate and great hope for the future. The same is true for the players. While they all start with a .000 batting average, that can only go up from there.
Some players get their seasons off to brilliant starts, having Opening Days for the ages. This year was no exception, two players remarkable games:
Kyle Manzardo of the Cleveland Guardians walked in his first at bat of the year. In the top of the fourth, he tripled and ultimately scored. In the sixth inning, he hit a solo home run. After striking out looking in the eighth, Manzardo took advantage of extra innings, hitting a two-run double in the top of the tenth to ultimately win the game for the Guardians. When all was said and done, Manzardo was a single shy of the cycle—which would have been only the second Opening Day cycle in MLB history (more about that below)—with four RBI.
MacKenzie Gore of the Washington Nations threw six innings, allowing just one hit, while striking out 13 Phillies. Gore matched Bob Gibson (more about that below) as the only pitchers in AL/NL history with that many strikeouts and no walks in a scoreless outing on Opening Day.
While those were quite the performances for one guy who with 156 previous big league at bats and only 15 runs batted in before Thursday afternoon, and one guy who only has 73 big league starts to his credit, they pale compared to some of the greatest Opening Days of all time. Here are just a few, starting with the pitchers:
Walter Johnson, pitching for the Senators in 1926 tossed 15 innings, giving up no runs while striking out nine against three walks in the their 1-0 win over the Athletics (then in Philadelphia).
Bob Feller, throwing for the then-Indians in 1940 what is still the only AL/NL Opening Day no-hitter. He struck out eight but issued five walks.
In the first of his nine straight Opening Day starts in 1967, Bob Gibson threw a complete-game shutout against the Giants, allowing just five hits and striking out 13 without issuing a single walk. Pretty good company for Mr. Gore.
Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw fell short of Feller and Gibson in 2013, allowing four hits, but he handed out no walks while striking out only seven. Kershaw also added his own home run. (At the plate, Feller went 0-for-3 in his gem; Gibson, alas, went 0-for-4.)
Now, for the hitters, including a few from Detroit:
In 1937, Gee Walker of Tigers hit for the cycle and went 4-for-4 while also scoring twice in the Detroit’s 4-3 win over Cleveland.
On Opening Day in 1986, future October hero Kirk Gibson went 4-for-4 without cycling: he hit two home runs and drove five home, helping push the Tigers past the Red Sox, 6-5.
On that same day, Jim Presley of the Mariners went 3-for-4 with two home runs and 6 RBIs in a ten-inning, 8-4 win over the Angels.
Coming off a 47-homer season in 1987, George Bell rang in 1988 with three dingers against the Royals in a 5-3 Blue Jays win.
On Dwight Gooden’s final Opening Day as a Met, Karl (“Tuffy”) Rhodes hit three homers off Doc at Wrigley Field. The bad news: it was not enough, as the Cubs fell to the Mets, 12-8.
In 1999, Dodgers’ outfielder Raúl Mondesi tried his best to match the best previous Opening Days: going 4-for-5 with two homers and six RBIs, plus a walk. That helped the Dodgers to an 8-6 win over the Diamondbacks.
Corey Patterson of the Cubs went 4-for-6 with two homers and seven RBIs as his Cubs drubbed the Mets, 15-2 in 2003.
Another Tiger, Dmitri Young went wild in 2005, hitting three home runs with five RBI in a 4-for-4 day (plus a hit-by-pitch) as Detroit throttled Kansas City, 11-2.
The Royals were victimized yet again in 2018 as Matt Davidson crushed three homers in the White Sox’s 14-7 win over the Royals.
Most recently, in 2023, Adley Rutschman went a cool 5-for-5 with a home run, a walk, and four RBIs, as the Orioles edged the Red Sox, 10-9.
Baseball analysts are always quick to downplay “small sample size” assessments, so there is no need to extrapolate anything from any of the above games. Johnson, Feller, Bob Gibson, and (eventually) Kershaw are Hall of Famers, so their Opening Day success is not shocking.
But Walker went on to slash .335/.380/.499 in 1937 for the second-highest OPS of his career, making his only All-Star team. Kirk Gibson’s 1986 turned out to be relatively pedestrian, but Presley’s was the second-best season of his career.
Bell’s 1988, Rhodes’ 1994, Mondesi’s 1999, Young’s 2005, and Davidson’s 2018 were all middle-of-the-road. Patterson’s 2003 was his best. And Rutschman ended 2023 as a Top-10 Most Valuable Player Award vote-getter while winning a Silver Slugger Award.
Long story short, it is best simply to appreciate these great Opening Day performances, as there are absolutely no conclusions that can be drawn from them. After that one great game, there are still 161 to go.
PLAY BALL!!
A version of this story appeared in the April 2nd edition of IBWAA’s “Here’s the Pitch” newsletter.
