Félix Hernández and Cole Hamels Had Remarkably Similar Careers
About two weeks ago, voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of American received their Hall of Fame ballots for 2026. Here are the candidates:
Last week, on the Effectively Wild podcast, Meg Rowley and Ben Lindbergh had Jay Jaffe on as their guest. For the uninitiated, Jay Jaffe is a Senior Writer at Fangraphs, author of the book The Cooperstown Casebook, and is the creator of the JAWS statistic for quantifying a player’s Hall of Fame credentials. When you have a Hall of Fame question, Jay is the first person you go to.
Meg and Ben wanted to talk to Jay about the upcoming class, and who has a chance to make it to the podium at the Clark Sports Center in Cooperstown, New York next July. It is a great listen.
As they were all talking, two names caught my ear: Félix Hernández and Cole Hamels. Not only are they listed consecutively on this year’s ballot, they are right next to each other in Hall of Fame qualifications. Let’s take a look:
King Félix pitched for 15 seasons, all with the Seattle Mariners. Hamels also threw for 15 seasons, but with four clubs (if you count his 3-1/3 innings with Atlanta in the Covid-shortened 2020 year, his last).
Hernández finished with a 3.42 ERA, Hamels, 3.43.
Hernández won 169 games, six better than Hamels’ 163.
From an ERA+ perspective, Hamels wins the battle 123 to 117.
Hamels struck out 36 more batters than Hernández (2,560-2,524), which amounts to a mere two additional strike outs per season. Essentially the same. And Hernández had more walks (805) than Hamels (767). But, again, over 15 seasons, it is about two per year, so…the same.
Over their 15-year careers, Hernández threw 31 more innings. So, again, about the same.
Hamels was an integral part of the Phillies rotation that won the 2008 World Series, winning both the Championship Series and World Series MVP awards. King Félix never pitched in the post-season (not his fault). But he did win a Cy Young Award (in 2010) and two ERA titles (2010, 2014), all of which eluded Hamels.
And yet, somehow, when you add all of these numbers together, Hamels ended his career with nearly nine more bWAR (59.0 vs. 49.8). But, that belies the fact that over at Fangraphs, Félix actually bests Hamels 54.0 to 51.6. If one didn’t throw with his left hand in the National League (for most of his career) and the other with his right hand in the American League, you would think they are the same pitcher.
With those stats in hand, let’s take a look at Jaffe’s Hall of Fame qualifications. As a reminder, per JAWS, the typical HOF pitcher has the following credentials:
72.9 bWAR // 49.8 seven-year peak bWAR // 61.3 JAWS score // 4.5 bWAR/162
Hamels only makes the grade in bWAR/162 (he has 4.7). As stated above, his bWAR is 59.0, his seven-year peak is only 37.4, and his JAWS score is 48.2.
Hernández fails in all of the categories: 49.8 bWAR, 38.5 seven-year peak, 44.1 JAWS, and 4.0 bWAR/162.
Using other metrics makes the case even worse. Just once did Hamels lead the league in any category (WHIP, in 2008), while Hernández did so just 28 times. That number is 40 for the average Hall of Famer. Bill James’ Hall of Fame Monitor (where 100 makes you a likely entrant), has Hernández at 67 and Hamels at 57. And James’ HOF Standards, where 50 is an average Hall of Famer, Hernández scores 31, while Hamels comes in at 33.
None of the above should in any way detract from either of their brilliant careers. They both have places in the Hall of “Very Good.” Neither ever has to buy a drink in their respective home towns. Hernández is in the Mariners Hall of Fame, and it just a matter of time until Hamels is on the Phillies Wall of Fame.
And while it would be great if players this similar could both be inducted and give speeches on the same day, that just doesn’t seem likely in this case. In fact, there is a chance that no one gives a speech this July, but more about that in another column to come.
PLAY BALL!!
