Dustin Pedroia a Hall of Famer? A Case Can Be Made
The 2025 Hall of Fame votes are in. Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner will be celebrating in central New York at the end of July. Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones are on the cusp, and will be hoping for a better outcome next year.
But there are certain players who deserve better (David Writer), who should have received more votes (Andy Pettitte), who should have remained on the ballot for at least one more year (Ian Kinsler). And then there are players such as Dustin Pedroia, the height-challenged second baseman who played his entire career for the Boston Red Sox, who received 11.9% of the vote this year.
Pedroia was drafted in the second round of the 2004 draft out of college baseball powerhouse Arizona State University. He made his major league debut in 2006, getting 98 plate appearances over 31 games, while preserving his rookie status for 2007. In 2007, Pedroia took the league by storm. He slashed .317/.380/.442, with 39 doubles and more walks than strikeouts, all on the way to becoming Rookie of the Year.
More importantly, he was a vital cog in Boston’s second World Series title in four years. Then, in 2008, Pedroia got even better. He slashed .326/.376/.493, with 213 hits, which included 17 home runs and 54 doubles. He also stole 20 bases while becoming a first-time All-Star, first-time Gold Glover, first-time Silver Slugger, and first (and only) time American League MVP.
In 2009, he led the league in runs with 115, while tallying another 185 hits and 48 doubles, to go along with 20 more steals. Pedroia was an All-Star in 2009 and in 2010. In 2011, he won another Gold Glove and finished ninth in MVP voting. He did not lead the league in any category, nor did he win any awards in 2012, but he did slash .290/.347/.449, with 57 extra base hits.
In 2013, with the Red Sox on their way to yet another world championship, Pedroia played in 160 games (after tearing a UCL in his thumb on April 1st) and led the league in plate appearances. He hit .301 with 53 extra base hits, was named an All-Star for the fourth time, won his third Gold Glove, and finished seventh in MVP voting.
His 2014 and 2015 were off years by comparison, as he only accumulated 3.9 and 2.6 bWAR in those two seasons, but he still had an OPS+ of 101 and 112 OPS, making him above average each season. In 2016, he regained his form, playing in 154 games and adding another 52 extra base hits to his .318/.376/.449 slash line, for a robust 117 OPS+.
On April 21, 2017, Pedroia’s left knee was injured while trying to turn a double play. Despite the fact that team doctors told him that playing with the injury could (and ultimately did) have long-term consequences, the diminutive second baseman gutted out a total of 105 games that season, still hit .293, still had a 101 OPS+, but he managed only 26 extra base hits (seven home runs), with his second-worst career slugging percentage.
Knee surgeries limited him to a total of nine game and 34 plate appearances over the 2018 and 2019 seasons. He recorded his last hit and his last RBI on April 11, 2019 in a 7-6 victory over the Blue Jays in front of the Boston faithful. He would go 0-for-12 over four more games. On April 17th, he came to bat at Yankee Stadium and lined out to right on an 0-2 pitch. That—fittingly, going the other way, refusing to concede a single pitch let alone an at bat—would be his final plate appearance.
Pedroia played in all or part of 14 seasons. His career slash line is .299/.365/.439, with a 113 OPS+. He was a Rookie of the Year and MVP and a four-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner. In 1,512 games, he had 1,805 hits, 394 doubles, and 140 home runs. He had five seasons with at least 185 hits, and six seasons with at least 50 extra base hits. He was the emotional leader of a team that won three World Series. He was the loudest voice in the clubhouse, in the dugout, and on the field. He was beloved by his coaches, his manager, his teammates, and the fans.
But none of that—even when added up and given a high shine—probably makes Pedroia a Hall of Famer.
The average Hall of Fame player has black ink (leading the league in a specific category) 27 times, according to the Bill James Black Ink test. Pedroia had eleven.
According to James’ Hall of Fame Standards, where the average Hall of Fame player scores 50, the Red Sox second baseman merits only 32.
And Jay Jaffe’s robust JAWS system has Pedroia as the 19th best second baseman of all-time, well behind non-Hall players Lou Whitaker and Willie Randolph. Further, when compared to players of his ilk, here is how it shakes out:
- Career bWAR: 51.9 (average Hall of Fame second baseman: 69.5)
- 7-Year Peak bWAR: 41.0 (average Hall of Fame second baseman: 44.4)
- JAWS: 46.5 (average Hall of Fame second baseman: 57.0)
Pedroia was on his way to a Hall of Fame career. But for the Machado slide in 2017 (a slide, it must be noted, that Pedroia felt was clean and for which he holds no grudges), he might have played out his contract through 2021 (through his age-37 season), accumulated another 750 hits (150 hits/season is not an unreasonable guess), plus another 60 home runs (twelve per season was well within range), finished up with a .300 batting average (not just .299), and collected more than 2500 lifetime hits.
Those additional five seasons, at let’s say 3.0 bWAR per year, gets him in the neighborhood of Roberto Alomar and Ryne Sandberg, and probably gets him a speaking slot one weekend in late July and a lifetime of cold beverages on the porch at the Otesaga Hotel in Cooperstown, New York.
It should be noted that Chase Utley received 157 votes for the Hall of Fame this year, which is 39.8%. He is definitely trending in the right direction. He compares to Pedroia favorably, too:
| Utley | Pedroia | |
| Hits | 1,885 | 1,805 |
| OPS+ | 117 | 113 |
| HOF Monitor* | 94 | 94 |
| 5.0 bWAR Seasons | 6 | 6 |
*Per Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor, 100 is a likely Hall of Famer.
Of course, a career is made up of more than the above stats. The good news is that by appearing on nearly 12% of the ballots this year, we can continue to analyze Pedroia’s Hall of Fame worthiness.
PLAY BALL!!
