Taking the L on Corey Seager

This article first appeared it the IBWAA “Here’s the Pitch” newsletter.

Living in Los Angeles, and having seen every one of Corey Seager’s first seven MLB seasons, I held an unpopular (both in that I was somewhat alone and that people didn’t like it) opinion that he was overrated. When he got hurt in 2018 and missed the remainder of the season, I also held the unpopular position that the Dodgers were better off with Manny Machado at short if they wanted to make a deep playoff run.

To begin, as a rookie in 27 games in 2015, Seager set the world on fire, hitting .337 and slugging .561, with 13 extra-base hits in 98 at-bats, for a jaw-dropping 174 OPS+.

Seager played an iron-man-level 157 games in his sophomore campaign, slashing .308/.365/.512 with a gaudy 134 OPS+. This netted him an All-Star game appearance, third place in National League MVP voting, a Silver Slugger Award, and the NL Rookie of the Year. He accrued 5.2 bWAR, eighth among all NL position players. And yet, I still was not convinced.

2017 was more of the same. 145 games played (138 at short), .854 OPS, 126 OPS+, another All-Star appearance, another Silver Slugger Award, 5.3 bWAR. And he only made 11 errors in 520 chances. What was I missing?

Seager tore his UCL less than a month into the 2018 season and missed the entirety of the Dodgers’ pennant run. The good news for Seager: It was Machado who struck out to end the World Series in front of the hometown crowd.

Seager came back from his injury in 2019 to lead the league in doubles (44), hit .272, and slugged .483 with an .817 OPS. It was a relatively pedestrian (for him) 2.9 bWAR season. I was starting to feel vindicated.

We can skip the 2020 season, except for the fact that Seager was the MVP of both the NL Championship Series and the World Series. He hit .328 with eight home runs and 20 RBIs that postseason, including a ridiculous 1.256 OPS in the World Series.

In May of 2021, Seager got hit by a pitch and missed 11 weeks and 65 games. This could have been catastrophic in a walk year, but both before and after his stint on the IL, Seager put up another season of great numbers. He hit .306 with a .915 OPS, and still earned 3.6 bWAR. This set him up for a mega contract.

At this point, in seven seasons with the Dodgers, including the truncated 2020, Seager slashed .297/.367/.504, with 280 extra-base hits, a 131 OPS+, 21.2 bWAR, and two postseason MVP awards. And yet, shockingly, I had seen enough. The truth is that I believed Seager to be a VERY good player, but – postseason MVPs notwithstanding – not a Superstar!. And I didn’t think the Bums should shell out a Superstar! contract for a very good player.

If we use FanGraphs’ $8.1 million per bWAR as a baseline, and we use Seager’s 3.6 bWAR from 2021 as the reference point, he would be worth about $29 million per year. In today’s marketplace, that makes sense. 

But for how many years? How long can a 6-foot-4 shortstop continue to play passable defense (even the great Cal Ripken Jr. eventually moved to third base). Would the Manny Machado deal (10 years/$300 million) make sense? How about the Nolan Arenado deal (8/$260 million)? Or the Anthony Rendon version (7/$245 million)? As a Dodgers season ticket holder, I did not want to see the team invest either 10 years or $300 million in a guy who I (incorrectly) felt was overrated, and who I believed (and it remains to be seen) cannot remain at shortstop long-term.

When Seager became a free agent, the largest contract Andrew Friedman had ever awarded was Mookie Betts’ 12 years for $365 million extension. Could the Dodgers pay something roughly akin to that for Seager? Of course they could. But should they? Clearly, the club didn’t think so. 

As was reported at the time, the Dodgers offered – and Seager declined – an eight-year, $250 million proposal. $31.25 million per year until his age 36 season is a very strong offer. True, it didn’t match Machado, but it was in line with Arenado. And when that deal was inked, Arenado had accumulated 31.4 bWAR (roughly 50% more than Seager), was a four-time All-Star, had three top five MVP finishes, had won six consecutive Gold Gloves, and was generally considered the best third baseman in baseball. So, offering Seager $10 million less over eight years was not at all disrespectful. But when you have Scott Boras in your corner, there is (almost) always another offer out there. Enter the Texas Rangers.

Over the course of roughly 24 hours in December, 2021, the Rangers signed Marcus Semien to a 7/$175 million deal to play second base and then Seager to a 10/$325 million deal to man short. That is why you hire Boras. Seager got a bump of $1.25 million per year over the Dodgers’ offer, and got that for two full additional years. Truth be told, when the news broke, my reaction was, “Good riddance.”

In the two seasons he has played with the Rangers, Seager has hit .281 with 66 home runs, a .350 OBP, and slugged .530. This year he accumulated 6.9 bWAR in just 119 games. If not for that guy in Anaheim pitching and hitting, Seager would win the AL MVP playing in less than 75% of his team’s games. Because the season-long MVP appears off the table, Seager simply won the World Series MVP with a (second) performance of a lifetime. It remains to be seen how Seager ages, and, accordingly, how his deal ages. But, flags fly forever, and there had never been one in North Texas before last week. Seager has shown himself to be at his best in the biggest moments, making a strong case to be the next Mr. October. That has to be worth something.

In order to grow as a human, you have to admit when you are wrong. And while I still don’t think that the Dodgers – or any team – should have paid Seager $325 million, it is clear that he is a Superstar!. As the Rangers got the W, I took the L. As for what the Dodgers would look like if they had shelled out the money to keep Seager, I guess we’ll never know.

PLAY BALL!!

The A’s Fans Deserve Better: Sell the Team

*This article first appeared in today’s edition of the IBWAA Here’s the Pitch newsletter.*

I visited Tropicana Field last year. And, as a glutton for punishment, I gave into to my son’s wish to visit an equally squalid ballpark: The Oakland Coliseum. This wouldn’t check any stadium off my list, but it did seem like a fun day trip.

I first visited what was then the Oakland-Alameda Coliseum in the late ‘80s. Even back then the park left a lot to be desired, but (a) the team on the field was something to behold (winning the AL West four of five seasons between 1988–1992; Mark McGwire, Jose Canseco, Dave Stewart, Dennis Eckersley, etc.), and (b) we had nothing of great import to compare it to (Fenway hadn’t yet been remodeled; Wrigley had recently installed lights but not clean restrooms; Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia all played in the exact same multi-purpose cement stadium; a single Giants game was a four-season experience, requiring sunscreen and a parka; etc.). Ignorance, in 1989, was bliss.

Commissioner Rob Manfred has repeatedly stated that MLB will not consider expansion until the stadium issues in Tampa Bay and Oakland are resolved. It seems the Rays have landed on a new park plan and design (here’s to hoping it will be a massive improvement), while the A’s have all but started packing their bags for Vegas. So, before they leave The Town, my son wanted to see The Coliseum in all of its lack of grace and never-present glory.

Now, I will not get into the many and varied ways that a move to Sin City is a horrible idea and is not in keeping with what A’s ownership claims they actually want to do with the team, their ballpark, and the surrounding environs. What I will get into is the current state of where the A’s – for the time being – still call home.

Like I stated, it’s been more than 30 years since I last saw a game in Oakland. Suffice it to say, time has not been kind to the ballpark. We flew up on a Saturday afternoon, and went through the gates as soon as they opened so that we would have plenty of time to observe the stadium from every angle. We circled the park at the lowest and the highest points; we walked the concourse from the 100 to the 300 level. We climbed to the tippy top and got a view of San Francisco and a vertigo-inducing view of the field below. We stood in the bleachers amongst the “Sell the Team” signs and the drums. We found ourselves in dark hallways and bright bleachers. In short, we took it all in.

If there is one word I would use to describe the park, it would have to be: “janky.” The stadium itself is just horrible. Now, here is where I need to state – without equivocation – two undeniable facts:

(1)  The A’s fans are amazing. They are spirited, excited, and into their team. I did not witness any of the deplorable behavior that I have heard tale about at Raiders games. The tailgate, and tailgaters, were epic. The dancing to live music before the game was intoxicating. And the fans’ absolute unity in their love of their team and their antipathy toward the current ownership is impressive. These fans deserve more; they deserve better.

(2)  The field itself is beautiful. From nearly any location inside the park, you can look out and take in the vast expanse of the field itself (but don’t let your eyes wonder), and it is impressive. Maybe the splendor was enhanced by this being a gorgeous afternoon in The Bay, with a blue sky above. But, regardless, the groundskeepers in Oakland deserve a raise.

The Coliseum grounds crew may be the most professional part of the organization.

Now, back to the park. Boy oh boy. Where to start? How about at the beginning? We took the BART to the yard, and walked across the bridge to get in. With the chain link fence on the outside and massive cement exterior walls, it was hard to know whether we were heading into a ballpark or a maximum-security prison.

Once inside, the concourses were narrow but fine. The concessions on offer were actually pretty good (and, when compared to Dodger Stadium, downright plentiful); however, you need to go to the deepest recesses of the outfield to find decent ice cream (but I digress).

When we arrived, the A’s were taking batting practice (this was about 2½ hours before first pitch). Some of the ushers were great (one even gave a ball to my son). But others acted as if we were trying to get onto the floor for the Showtime Lakers. At one point I asked an usher: “If your team is averaging 8,500 fans per game [about 18% of capacity], why do you care where the fans – who actually show up – go or sit?” The answer was less than satisfying. According to a few diehard fans I chatted with, this has been a theme for a while.

As we walked through the aisles, we noticed three things we had never seen in a major league park:

(1)  Duct tape holding various items in place. This includes wires, cables, and seats. Everywhere you looked you caught sight of grey tape in places where cement or bolts or paint would otherwise be.

(2)  Rusted, broken, and discolored seats. And it was not just one or two; it was more like one or two per section. When walking through the aisles, we had to maneuver around seats that could no longer be folded up. The seats lay there, open and faded, as if to say, “We have seen some things, but we are going down with this rusted ship.”

The seats – like the team – have seen better days.

(3) A scoreboard missing signage on one side, and on the other side, a panel wherein the former name (O.co) could still be seen through a bad paint job.

Either John Fisher is too cheap to fix the scoreboard, or no one is willing to advertise there.

It’s truly hard to square the circle of the Oakland A’s. A team with a storied history in three different cities, potentially on its way to a fourth. The team spent 54 years in Philadelphia, but has now spent 55 in Oakland, and will most likely be there for at least a few more. They won five World Series in Philadelphia and four in Northern California – and whether or not they move, it will be at least a few more years before they win another.

But, regardless, the fans of Oakland have lost their football team (to Las Vegas, natch) and their basketball team (across the bay to San Francisco) – they deserve better. According to reports, only about $30 million separated the team and the City of Oakland when John Fisher abruptly informed the Mayor they accepted a proposal from Las Vegas. While $30 million may seem like a lot, it is only one quarter of one percent of the $12 billion dollar intended project. And the team has already gone back on the deal they originally closed in Las Vegas, opting for a much smaller plot of land and considerably less state money. None of this makes any sense.

It is not too late for Oakland. Commissioner Manfred expects the final owners’ vote to approve the move will happen in November. There is no reason that 22 owners need to assent to the relocation. The owners could hear the rallying cry from the fans who have made themselves heard time and again and reject the move; or they could listen to the admonition of now-retired A’s pitcher Trevor May, who had the following to say as part of his retirement announcement:

“Sell the team, dude. Sell it man. Let someone who actually takes pride in the things they own, own something. There’s actually people who give a shit about the game. Let them do it.”

Here’s to hoping that in Oakland, for years to come, they will be saying:

PLAY BALL!!

The Joy of Joe

Next month marks the nine-year anniversary of my writing about baseball. It started innocently enough. At a work lunch following an incredible Wild Card game, I gave my colleagues a spirited recap. One co-worker said that someone who has so much passion and excitement for the game needs to write about it. Nearly 300 articles later, that is exactly what I have been doing.

One of my goals in writing about the sport is to point out overlooked or under-observed matters. I want people to see the small details that enthrall me, the plays and stories that make me smile. Simply put, I want to convey to readers how much joy I get from the game of baseball.

Shortly after I started writing, I realized that someone was already on my corner – and he had a near monopoly on joyously writing about baseball. In 2015, I found Joe Posnanski on NBCSports.com. From my first read, I knew I had a kindred spirit in the love of the game, but he lapped me in reach, experience, knowledge, and skill. Truth be told, after first reading Joe’s writing, I nearly unplugged my keyboard. For whatever reason, I kept at it. Maybe I did so just so I could ultimately write this article.

If you are a fan of Joe Posnanski, you can probably stop reading now. If you aren’t, know that he is arguably the best sportswriter walking the planet today (he won such an award from the AP Sports Editors in both 2002 and 2005, and the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association named him the same in 2012). But that doesn’t tell even half the story. Joe is the best sportswriter because he loves sports, and he loves writing, and both of those sentiments jump off the page/screen.

As a young man, Joe didn’t think he could write, and yet he took a job as a stringer for the Charlotte Observer covering high school sports. While there, he wrote articles in his free time just for himself. But (to his amazement and embarrassment) an editor happened upon these stories and thought they were pretty good. And so it began.

Joe worked at the Cincinnati Post, then the Augusta Chronicle where he started covering golf (rumor has it that there is an important tournament there). In 1996, the Kansas City Star hired Joe, and his career took off. He spent more than a decade at The Star before becoming a senior columnist at Sports Illustrated. From there he went to the USA Today and then Sports on Earth (the long-form website run by MLB Advanced Media). All of which led Joe to NBC Sports, where I first encountered him (how I missed the previous iterations is a mystery to be solved another day). Since that time, Joe has ventured out on his own, writing a daily newsletter called JoeBlogs. The through-line, regardless of where his writing is published, is the simple joy that oozes from his fingers and into his work.

That excitement is never more apparent than when Joe writes about the Negro Leagues. Feel free to disagree, but no writer alive today has written more extensively, more exhaustively, or more reverently about the Negro Leagues than Joe Poz. The Soul of Baseball, written in 2007 after a cross-country trip with the legendary Buck O’Neil, is a must-read for any baseball fan. That book introduced Joe to Bob Kendrick, president of the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum in Kansas City, who Joe now calls his brother from another mother. This past Saturday night, at the “Salute to the Negro Leagues” in Kansas City, Joe – wearing a Monarchs hat – threw out the first pitch of the game to Mr. Kendrick.

Joe P. and Bob K. doing their best Satch and Josh

In 2009, Joe wrote The Machine: A Hot Team, a Legendary Season, and a Heart-stopping World Series: The Story of the 1975 Cincinnati Reds. This book reached #17 on the New York Times Best Seller list. Venturing outside of baseball, in 2012, he wrote a biography of Joe Paterno (Paterno) that debuted at #1 on the NYT list. Remaining outside of baseball, and drawing on his time in Augusta, Joe wrote The Secret of Golf: The Story of Tom Watson and Jack Nicklaus in 2015. In 2019, Posnanski turned another trick, writing The Life and Afterlife of Harry Houdini. Then came the magnum opus: In 2021, Joe published The Baseball 100. Bookpage summed it up perfectly: “A true masterwork … 880 pages of sheer baseball bliss.”

But Joe was not content. After writing nearly 900 pages counting down the 100 greatest baseball players of all time, injecting his unique perspective and asides into each name on the list, he decided we all needed to learn Why We Love Baseball, which was released earlier this month. Joe has been promoting this book for months, repeatedly saying that this one was the most fun to write, and that he could not wait for readers to dig in. 

For another author, this might have seemed untoward or braggartly; for Joe, it was wholly natural. He was like a kid dragging his dad into the house to show him the Lego he built – he was so excited and proud of what he produced, he could not wait to share it with the world. I can testify (as can nearly every editorial publication) that each story is thoroughly researched, each player lovingly feted, each tangent seemingly unknown and unknowable and yet discovered. You cannot read the book and not feel how much joy Joe took in writing it, and how much joy he takes in having us read it.

Which brings me to last week. As part of the release of WWLB, Joe went on a whirlwind nationwide tour, meeting fans from Charlotte to Los Angeles, and many places in between. When too many people signed up to hear him talk about his book at Chevalier’s Books in L.A., they moved the event to the fabled Wilshire Ebell Theatre. It was only fitting – the venue has hosted artists since 1927, the year that Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs as part of the “Murderer’s Row.” A group of about 50 gathered to listen to Joe (along with Mike Schur, Molly Knight, and Nick Offerman) all talk lovingly about baseball.

When we moved to the Q&A portion of the night, Joe requested that each questioner tell the crowd how they fell in love with the game before asking their question. For Joe, the origin story of baseball is about family; it is about passing along the love from one generation to the next. And true to form, nearly every person who stood up had a tale to tell about a father, a son, or a friend who introduced them to the game, and kept that flame lit when they or their favorite team or player fell on hard times.

It is no less delightful to hear Joe speak about baseball in person than it is to read him on the page or to listen to his wonderful Poscast podcast. And that is because Joe is both a delightful human being and a charming raconteur. He has an encyclopedic knowledge about the history of the game, the players, and their individual stories.

Reading and listening to someone who loves baseball even more than I do is such a rarity, and such a pleasure. But, for my money, it is Joe’s non-baseball, non-sports-related essays that go right to my heart, and tug on the strings. After waiting more than 30 minutes to finally introduce myself to the man, I mentioned to him that my favorite story of his was the one about taking his daughter to see Hamilton in New York (click the link – it’s worth the price of a subscription). I could tell that that was not what he expected. And, for a brief moment, I believe I shocked him – and he seemed quite pleased. It is my sincere hope that in that moment, Joe got the same jolt of excitement, as fleeting as it may have been, that I feel each time I open JoeBlogs or flip the pages of one of his books.

They tell you to never meet your heroes. Well, last week I met one of mine. It lived up to all of my expectations; his stories, his humor, his warmth, didn’t disappoint. He may be the exception that proves the rule. The world needs more Joe Posnanskis; we need more people who are nothing short of delightful; we need more people with passion to spare and who are willing to share; we need people who simply bring a smile to your face. Do yourself a favor, buy one of his books, subscribe to his Substack, delve into the archives and the ephemera. You won’t regret it.

Thanks for having me, Joe.

PLAY BALL!!!

Buffing Their Halo: The Angels Make the Best of a BAD Situation

About a week before the August 1st trade deadline, the Los Angeles of Anaheim made it known that they would not be trading their once-in-a-century two-way star, Shohei Ohtani. Many in the baseball world criticized this decision, believing that the Angels could reset their farm system (currently ranked 28th by MLB Pipeline) with the haul they would receive for their soon-to-be free agent. 

Not four days later, owner Arte Moreno doubled down on his decision, trading two top-100 prospects to the White Sox for pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López. Just a few days after that, Moreno tripled down, trading two lower-level prospects to the Rockies for C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk. In making these moves, the frugal leader pushed his team above the competitive balance tax (first tier: $233M) for the first time in his 20 years as owner. When the dust settled on these deals, the Angels, who had won nine of their last 12 games, were four games back of the third and final Wild Card spot. Moreno had pushed his chips all in. 

Since the trade deadline, the Angels are an MLB-worst 8-23, falling 11 games behind the three-way goat rodeo for the final two Wild Card spots. As of August 28th, FanGraphs listed the Angels’ playoff odds at 0%, where they remain today. Suffice it to say, the gamble didn’t pay off. 

To add to the insult are injuries to Ohtani – who will most likely need “some sort of procedure,” including potentially a second Tommy John surgery – and Mike Trout, who most likely won’t play the rest of the season due to a bad wrist. As such, the Angels found themselves with players they didn’t need and a potential CBT bill due. Sure, Moreno could have just played out the string with the decisions he made in July, but that is not how one becomes a billionaire; that is not how one comes to own an MLB team. 

If the Angels stood pat, they would have ended the season above the CBT threshold (since we don’t have full visibility, the numbers vary: according to Spotrac, by about $5M; according to Roster Resource, by about $1.4M), which is subject to a 20% tax. Although a tax bill somewhere between $280,000 and $1M is a drop in the bucket for a team valued at more than $2 billion, why spend that if you don’t have to. Further, by staying above the CBT threshold, the compensation pick the Angels will receive if Ohtani signs elsewhere (once he receives and turns down a qualifying offer) would come after the fourth round. However, if they are not required to pay the tax, the compensation pick would come following the second round. The difference is somewhere between 60 and 70 picks – a massive difference. 

One last benefit of staying below the $233M CBT level: First-time offenders are subject to the above-referenced 20% tax, but second-timers get hit with a 30% tariff. So, if the Angels want to spend lavishly this offseason (on, say, a two-way superstar), their tax basis will be 50% less.  

Faced with this situation, the Angels did the prudent thing – they put six players, including four they recently acquired, on waivers. This means that any team could “claim” the player by simply agreeing to pay their salary for the final month of the season. All of the players the Angels put on waivers will be free agents at the end of the year, so there was no long-term loss of player capital. If all six players had been picked up, the Angels would have saved roughly $7M in salary obligations; and the above-referenced competitive balance tax; and would get a processing fee of $50,000 per guy. In short, by “dumping” (as it has been portrayed by many media outlets), the team stood to be more than $8M in the black and receive a draft pick nearly two rounds earlier.  

Five of the six were claimed. Randal Grichuk got stuck in Anaheim, a boon for the club since part of his salary is still being paid by the Blue Jays, and the Rockies sent cash to the Angels when he was acquired six weeks ago. Now that the five players are in their new (temporary) homes, the Angels saved just under $6M in salaries and received $250,000 in waiver fees. Unfortunately, without moving Grichuk, it has been reported that the Angels did not fall below the CBT threshold, and thus will receive the worse draft pick if they lose Ohtani to free agency. 

Buster Olney lamented the Angels’ waiver action as cynical. But when he interviewed a baseball executive, the choice was lauded as a savvy business decision. Olney fears that this may become the new norm and upset pennant races, which would contravene the intent of abolishing the August 31st revocable waiver wire a few years ago. However, insofar as the players are available to teams in reverse order of the standings, this will not automatically benefit big market teams (the five players were acquired by Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Seattle).  

Even if this does become customary, it would add another level of strategy for teams who may elect to lose a game or two at the end of August to improve their waiver claim position. 

As a postscript to this story, and in a sign that maybe the tide is beginning to turn for the Angels, the team caught a break. Max Stassi, who has missed the entire season due to a family emergency, was still receiving paychecks. However, over the weekend he informed the club that while he is now capable of playing, he will not return to the team, thus forfeiting approximately $1.2M in salary. With this reduction – and with removal of the five above-referenced players – it appears the club is now under the CBT threshold, and is in line to receive a better draft pick. Taking Stassi’s money off the books would have had no effect if the Angels had not been shrewd and clever in the days before the waiver deadline.

The Angels are a snake-bitten organization, to be sure. They have made many questionable decisions (see, Vernon Wells, Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, Anthony Rendon, dealing with the Mayor of Anaheim, etc.). They can be taken to task for holding onto Ohtani last season, this past winter, and this July. But once they sunk the cost and sunk in the standings, they didn’t need to be sunk. Bemoan all you want, worry about the league-wide implications if you must, but for the first time since they re-signed Trout, the Angels should be praised for attempting to execute an adroit strategy, setting the team up for future success (or at least less pain).

PLAY BALL!!

Like Snow On the Beach

This past weekend, there was a hurricane watch in Southern California. Two weeks ago, people fled rather than vacationed in the paradise that is Hawaii. Soon we will be awash in political ads telling you to believe or disbelieve truths and untruths in equal measure. In short, the world is off kilter. Taylor Swift had it partially right: It’s “weird,” but I’m not too sure it’s “fu*^ing beautiful.”

There are many theories for what is happening today – from global warming to massive income inequality to hyper partisanship. But I have a much simpler explanation: In the space of about four minutes on October 17, 2004, the universe tilted off its axis. Nothing has been the same since.

In the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS, Mariano Rivera – the only unanimous Hall of Fame selection – walked the leadoff batter. In 19 regular seasons, Rivera walked only 286; in 96 playoff games over 32 series, he only walked 21; in over 1,000 career games, he gave a free pass to the first batter a mere 43 times. In short, it basically never happens, and then it did. That was the first glitch.

The second came just two minutes later when pinch-runner Dave Roberts stole second base by a hair’s breath. After days of flatlining, the Red Sox had a heartbeat.

Bill Mueller then singled Roberts home to tie the game. The rest, as they say, is history. But really, it is not. The Red Sox still needed a David Ortiz dinger in the 12th inning; and then they still needed to win three more games. But, what we didn’t yet know was that the walk + the stolen base + the single were three distinct acts that changed everything … forever.

There was Tony Clark’s ground-rule double that should have been a run-scoring triple. There was Mark Bellhorn’s homer that was first called a double. There was Alex Rodriguez’s “slap heard ‘round the world” that was reversed. There was the Yankees refusing to bunt on the obviously incapacitated Curt Schilling. There was the silence of Yankee Stadium in a Game 7 blowout. All of which was a prelude to the sweep of the Cardinals for the first World Series title in 86 years.

After Bill Buckner, Bucky “Fu*^in’” Dent, and Aaron “Bleeping” Boone, and decades of heartbreak, the Red Sox were on top. And they would be on top three more times over the course of the next 14 seasons. The Yankees tried to square the ledger with a World Series win in 2009. But we are now at 14 years and counting since the Yanks’ last championship, and after this past weekend, they may have hit rock bottom.

To say the Yankees have been listless this year would be an understatement. And yet, prior to their recent nine-game losing streak (which ended with a win on Wednesday over the Nationals), they were four games over .500, on their way – maybe not to the playoffs – but to their 31st consecutive winning season. So, when the Red Sox rolled into the Bronx last Friday night, I had this nagging fear that all of the old tropes would come back; the Yankees would sweep the BoSox to go back over .500 on their way to a late Wild Card push. And, when the Yankees hoisted the World Series trophy later this fall, we would all point back to this weekend as the turning point. Pre-2004, that is exactly what would have happened.

But on Friday night, the first four batters of the game reached base, culminating with a Masataka Yoshida three-run homer. The Red Sox tacked on three more in the second inning. But – true to form – 17 out of the next 19 Boston batters were retired, as the Yankees chipped away, making the score 7-3. The Red Sox scratched out a run in the top of the ninth to give a little more cushion, but I was still not relaxed.

Gleyber Torres led off the bottom of the ninth with a single. That was followed by Jarren Duran misplaying an Isiah Kiner-Falefa single into a double. In pre-off-kilter times, two runners in scoring position with no outs would have led to a six-run rally, netting the Yankees a series-opening victory and a ton of momentum. But the world no longer spins like that. Rather, Harrison Bader and Anthony Volpe struck out looking and Ben Rortvedt (who?) flew out to end it.

Gerrit Cole took the hill on Saturday to square the series. Cole is the current AL Cy Young front-runner. If anyone could right the ship, it was he. Instead, Cole gave up Luis Urías’ second grand slam in three games. Cole went only four innings on his way to his fourth loss, while the Red Sox pushed his ERA over 3.00 for the first time all season.

Sunday offered the faltering Bombers one last chance at redemption, and they did their level best. The Yankees fell behind on three different occasions, and tied the score each time (much to the consternation of Red Sox Nation). Pre-2004, the Yankees would win this game and thwart a Red Sox sweep. Post-2004, the following happened:

  • With the score tied in the bottom of the eighth, IKF led off with a single.
  • Somehow, Bader’s 107 mph liner landed in Adam Duvall’s glove.
  • There was a lazy fly to right for the second out.
  • IKF was running when Volpe singled to left. Rob Refsnyder – just into the game for the injured Duran – fell down fielding the ball, which allowed IKF to come all the way around. Trevor Story’s relay throw was low, but Connor Wong picked it and applied the tag. The call on the field was “safe,” giving the Yankees their first lead of the entire weekend.
  • The Red Sox challenged the call, and after an interminable wait, with the NESN announcers predicting the run would count, IKF was called out and the game remained tied.
  • But now the Yankees wanted to check to see if Wong illegally blocked the plate. In times of yore, the “safe” may have become “out,” but then the call would go against Wong, allowing IKF to be “safe” again. It’s just that we no longer live in those times.
  • Alas, we went to the ninth knotted at 5.

The Red Sox took a 6-5 lead in the top half.

Greg Allen led off the bottom half smacking an 0-2 fastball to within two inches of a game-tying home run. In my day, a next generation Jeffrey Maier reaches over the wall, but no one sees it, and the game would be tied. Today, Allen found himself standing on second base. After plunking DJ LeMahieu, Kenley Jansen had the winning run on base with Aaron Judge coming to the plate. Before Dave Roberts, Judge would have done what he had already done twice in the series. 

But after DR, he struck out looking on three pitches. Torres (then hitting .367 with a 1.221 OPS vs. the Red Sox this season) followed with his own strikeout. But, Jansen still needed to get past Rortvedt. He lined one hard, but right to Duvall who corralled it to complete the sweep.

As of Tuesday night, the Yankees had lost nine straight – doing so for the first time in 41 seasons; were five games under .500; and in last place in the AL East. I will NEVER claim the Yankees are done, but they are getting ever-so-close. Before Rivera walked Kevin Millar, none of this ever could have happened. The Red Sox may not make the playoffs this year, but if they effectively ended the Yankees’ season, well, that is pretty good consolation.

The BoSox swept the Yankees in the Bronx. Multiple New York threats were squelched before they began, and Boston got both clutch pitching and hitting. The Red Sox are alive, and the Bombers are in disarray.

Maybe Taylor Swift had it right after all: “Weird, but fu*^ing beautiful.”

PLAY BALL!!

Trust, But Verify

With the trade deadline behind us, the recriminations have come fast and furious. Fans from coast to coast were left scratching their heads trying to figure out what their favorite team did, and why? All these fans have theories, and ways in which they would have done it better. Those fans include my son, who continued to send me text messages that simply read: “Chaimmmmmmm!” in the days and hours leading up to the 6pm ET cutoff.  

But, as I have previously written, and as I have repeatedly explained to my son, it takes two to tango. A general manager cannot make a deal by him/herself; they cannot make a deal just because they want to or because the fans are demanding it. Heck, they cannot even make one when they make one (more on that below). GMs need a trade partner. This has been true for time immemorial. And in the compressed moments of the trade deadline, reasonable minds often differ on value and compensation, on outlooks for the future and assessments of the present. In short, regardless of what Phil from Fall River says on WEEI, it may not be Chaim Bloom’s fault. 

Further, not every deal that Steve from Spokane thinks will be great for the Mariners will actually improve the team (either this season in the years to come). Rationality and reasonableness are not necessarily the coin of the realm on Twitter or talk radio. 

Nearly every MLB team is owned by a billionaire. And each such owner employs a head of baseball operations and/or a general manager, each of whom leads a team of scouts, evaluators, and quants, all of whom are in active dialogue with their coaches and players, as well as their counterparts throughout the league. Those people have risen to decision-making positions within an organization that is one of only thirty in a $12 billion industry. They watch every game, they review every prospect list, they scour every farm system, they track nearly every collegiate program. At this moment in time, this group of roughly 600 people know more about the current state of Major League Baseball than anyone on the planet. And yet… 

And yet, Walt from Washington Heights is calling for Brian Cashman to be fired because the Yankees didn’t do much at the deadline. Walt, who works for UPS, or is a tenth grade Social Studies teacher, or is an accountant or lawyer, has no compunction about calling into WFAN to tell Brian Cashman how to do his job, or how to do his job better. Forget the fact that Cashman has forgotten more about player evaluation and the competitive balance tax and winning and losing than Walt will ever learn; forget that Cashman has an owner in one ear and a staff of people in another. According to Walt, he knows something that Cashman doesn’t. 

I don’t mean to pick on Walt or Cashman. These same conversations are happening all across the league. It makes some sense, insofar as “fan” is short for “fanatic,” and “fanatic” is defined in the Oxford Dictionary as “a person filled with excessive and single-minded zeal.” But general managers don’t have the luxury of being excessive or single-minded. They have organizations to run, and not just for this season. They are fiduciaries for the long-term health and welfare of their team. Isaac from Indian Hills doesn’t have to worry about next season Reds’ lineup; all he cares about is winning, today! Fortunately for the Reds, Nick Krall does. 

Furthermore, as stated above, just because a GM wants to make a deal, it doesn’t mean the other side does. Maybe the Red Sox tried to get Tommy Edman from the Cardinals, but the Red Birds weren’t willing to let him go; or they wanted a king’s ransom for him. We know the latter to be the case for Dylan Cease. Sure, Cease would have solidified the Red Sox rotation, but at what cost? Was he worth two of the Boston’s best prospects for a flailing chance to make the second Wild Card slot this season? 

Sometimes a GM thinks they made a deal. The Dodgers and Tigers had a trade in place for Eduardo Rodriguez. However, no one asked Rodriguez if that was okay with him, and he invoked his no trade clause to thwart the deal. Andrew Friedman’s fault? That said, as an aside, I do believe there is fault to be laid on this one: (1) Scott Harris, the rookie President of Baseball Operations for the Tigers, screwed that up royally (Tigerly?); (2) Rodriguez claimed he wanted to stay on the east coast (Detroit?) to be closer to his family…in Florida, which might be plausible if; (3) Rodriguez’s agent didn’t acknowledge (albeit cryptically) that they were trying to sweeten Eduardo’s deal to allow the trade to go through, but they just ran out of time. But, I digress. 

The Orioles got crushed for not doing more at the deadline. By all accounts they are a year ahead of schedule, so they had to decide how much of their future they were willing to mortgage for the present. But, despite what Glenn from Glen Burnie posts on X, they most assuredly did the analysis. The decisions the Orioles made – regardless of whether or not fans in the DMV agree with them – were not rash and were based on considerably more information than that possessed by the guy sitting at the bar licking Old Bay off his fingers. 

Many teams reached out to Perry Minasian about Shohei Ohtani. Is it their fault that the Angels (most notably, owner Arte Moreno) elected not to trade him? I am sure that many organizations – the Giants and Mariners come to mind – wanted to improve their lots. But, it is possible they didn’t have the resources – financial and/or human – to make the trades that their fanbases would have loved. Which begs the question, which fanbase loves what their team did? The Rangers? Maybe the Astros? Possibly the Braves? That leaves 27 disappointed fanbases. You can’t please everyone. 

I truly wish that each team was required to deliver some sort of post-trade deadline “Truth and Reconciliation” report. They would state whom they were in on, who they made offers to, why they didn’t make certain offers, and which side scuttled potential trades. Of course, to quote Rodney Dangerfield, this type thing could only happen in “Fantasyland.”  

But fans do deserve some level of transparency from their teams. The fans pay the exorbitant tickets prices and the ridiculous parking fees and the obscene cost of beers. The fans buy the merch and watch the games on TV, which allows the team-owned RSNs to charge inflated fees to cable providers (for now, at least). In short, the fans are entitled to the truth – or at least some reasonable facsimile of the truth. So, if the “Truth and Reconciliation” report cannot be prepared, every GM should be required to give a post-deadline press conference wherein he/she answers questions from beat reporters about the choices the team made. And, for kicks, I would allow a few fans into the room so they can ask questions as well. 

The Red Sox did a truncated version of this, with both Chaim Bloom and GM Brian O’Halloran answering questions. I think O’Halloran summed up the experience and his team’s (and very likely many other teams’) choices quite well:  

“[Deadlines are] always an assessment of are there any trade opportunities that we can do that make sense in our position — not just in the standings, but our position organizationally. I think [all those deadlines are] actually pretty similar in that we contemplated tons of things, and just none of them made sense to do.” 

Fans are free to agree or disagree, that is what makes this a great country. But a little perspective is important. Acknowledging how little we actually know is important. These men and women want to win as much, if not more, than Hal from Huntington Beach, as their livelihoods oftentimes depend on it. So, some benefit of the doubt may be in order. But, as Ronald Reagan often said, “trust, but verify.” See you at the press conference. 

PLAY BALL!! 

Mookie Betts: Same As He Ever Was

About six weeks ago, after watching Mookie Betts go 0-for-5, with 2 strike outs and leaving a couple of runners on base, I had a thought bubble. At the time, Mookie was hitting roughly .240 and slugging below .500. This was the thought bubble: “Has Mookie lost it? Did the Red Sox avoid a catastrophe, and are the Dodgers stuck with a $365M contract for a player who once was?”

Maybe it was just wishful thinking. Maybe it was just me hoping that my favorite team didn’t make an all-time blunder. Maybe I just didn’t want this to be Babe Ruth Part Deux for Boston fans.

Truth be told, at the time I took the long, and unpopular, view that the Red Sox were correct in trading Mookie Betts. I didn’t think he would sign long-term in Boston (despite his now, after-the-fact, protestations to the contrary) and that he wanted to test the free agent market. He then came to my hometown team, allowing me to see him up close each and every day. And he has been terrific. Or has he? This is where my bias may have kicked in.

I have been watching Mookie for his entire career, but even more so now that he is in Los Angeles. And I could have sworn that – as stated above – he had lost a little something. He seemed to be striking out slightly more often; he seemed to be getting runners in from scoring position slightly less often. He seemed to be just a tick or two off the guy we all love and adore. But the eye test is not nearly enough – I had to do the work.

Now, for purposes of this analysis, I put aside the fact that Mookie is a 6-time Gold Glove winner in right field and offered to play second base and shortstop to solidify the Dodgers’ defense. The intangible of that type of leadership – and the ability to play those positions so adroitly – cannot be quantified (well, the analytics department in any organization can quantify it, but we as mere mortal fans have a harder time putting “actual” value to such versatility). I wanted to just look at the offensive numbers to see if Mookie, now into his thirties, was losing a step or two. Let’s take a look:

 H2BHRBBSOBAOPSOPS+bWAR
201517442184682.291.8201176.1
201621442314980.318.8971339.5
201716646247779.264.8031086.4
201818047328191.3461.07818610.7
2019176402997101.295.9151347.3
2020*64 (173)9 (24)16 (43)24 (65)38 (103).292.9271473.6
2021^12329236886.264.8541264.0
2022154403555104.269.8731396.4
2023+86 (164)20 (38)23 (44)52 (99)64 (122).272.9371483.9

*The stats for 2020 are over the 60-game season, with the number in parentheses representing a 162-game season.

^This is the first year of Mookie’s 12/$365M extension.

+All stats current through July 4th, with the numbers in parentheses representing a full-season projection.

According to the above, maybe – if you squint a lot – you might be able to see some flaws in Mookie’s overall batting profile.

Putting aside his 2016 season when he had 214, Betts has lived between 160 and 180 hits. Those numbers were down the past two seasons, but he is back on pace this year. The lower hit totals caused his batting average to dip (and even with his current hit totals, he is still at the lower-end of his career averages). Mookie is no longer a perennial (or even close to a perennial) .300 hitter. And you can call it causation or correlation, but his BABIP has also dropped every year since hitting a high of .368 in 2018 (.309 –> .289 –> .276 –> .272 –> .269).

But the number of doubles is essentially the same across seasons; and he is on pace for a career high in home runs, which may be part of the reason why he agreed to participate in this year’s Home Run Derby. His OPS is pretty darned consistent for his entire career. His OPS+ is elite, every season.

The quick review of the above shows that he is starting to strike out more often. He first broke 100 Ks in 2019, was on pace for the same in 2020, did it again last year, and this season is heading for an all-time high. Is there any substance to that noise? Only time will tell. But going back to the eye test, it seemed to me, as a casual observer, that those strike outs have come in inopportune moments.

Baseball Reference has a metric called BRS% (the percentage of all baserunners who scored by the batter, but not necessarily resulting in an RBI). Mookie’s career average is 17.7% (including 17.6% in his MVP season). In 2019 it was 14.9%, then jumped to 18.6%, then fell to 13.7%, coming back to 16.1% last season. This year, he is living at 19.8%. So maybe my “clutch eye” was tuned in the last couple of years, but this year he is pushing for a career best. Hmm?

Other than 2019, Mookie never grounded into double plays at a 10% clip (i.e., what percentage of opportunities to ground into double plays did the player do so). This year he is just under at 10% (4/45).

I decided to take a look at one more advance stat (also from Baseball Reference): Productive Outs, which means advancing any runner with no outs; driving in a run with the second out; with failure meaning not advancing the runner(s) with an out. And here Mookie is close to a career low. His percentage of Productive Outs is 28.6%. For context, his career average is 30.5%, and his career median in 33.3%. One might argue that the above is within the margin of error; and this writer might agree with that assessment.

So what does all of this mean? It means that Mookie is still fantastic. He is still a joy to watch and, by all accounts, an even better teammate. He is still going to give the Dodgers about 7 bWAR this year; will still hit around 40 HRs; and will still be 30-40% better than the average Major League player. Regression or not, father time sneaking up on him or not, he is still one of the greats of the game. We can quibble about strike out rates, but need to read them with walk rates (nearly at a career high). And then we need to factor in what I told you to forget above. This guy has repeatedly traded in his gold outfielder’s mitt to play middle infield, and has arguably done it better than Kiké Hernández has in Boston (Mookie: 3 errors in 102 chances at 2B/SS; Kiké: 14 errors in 246 chances at 2B/SS).

As we age, our eyesight gets worse, and it would figure that so too does the eye test. Maybe he wouldn’t have stayed in Boston, and so the Red Sox were smart to trade him; but that is irrelevant to the current analysis. Mookie Betts was and remains an all-timer.

PLAY BALL!!

Fathers + Sons = Baseball

Today is Father’s Day, which is always a frantic holiday for me as my daughters typically leave for camp this weekend, my sisters live in different directions, and it is nearly impossible to make sure every dad in the family has his day.

Last year on Father’s Day, I flew to Chicago and took in a game with my youngest. It was such a pleasure, but also twinged with guilt, as I wasn’t with the rest of my kids or my dad. If I had my druthers, we all would have been at Wrigley that day.

For context, and as you might recall, towards the end of the classic film Field of Dreams, the reclusive author Terence Mann, played by the grizzled and wizened James Earl Jones, says to Kevin Costner’s Ray Kinsella: “The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball.”

I work in the movie business and deal with writers, directors, and actors all the time. And for my money, for my life, never have truer words been uttered on-screen.

You see, through all my years, baseball has been the one constant. It is my bedrock and my north star, my hobby, and my obsession. But, more importantly, baseball is – if not the foundation, then at least – the backbone upon which my relationships with my father and with my son have been forged and have flourished.

One of my first memories – from around 1977 – is standing in an empty Fenway Park in Boston. Our family was in town to visit more family, and my dad slipped a security guard a finsky to let us into the ballpark hours before that night’s game.

My father, a trained and sometimes paid photographer – a man who would gladly leave home without an American Express card, but not without his camera – found himself alone with his son in one of the nation’s most hallowed stadiums, without his extra photographic appendage!

In the days before cell phones (with cameras) were in every pocket, we had no way to document that moment. To this day, there is no proof that it happened (my kids say “pix or it didn’t happen”). But it most certainly did.

What could have been…alone in America’s most beloved ballpark

I have dined out on this story for years – especially in contrast to our children, who don’t leave their bedrooms without documenting every step on social media. But since we have no actual evidence of the day, and since memories are an imperfect beast, it is impossible to know all of the details. Which begs the question, does it matter?

The story, my memory, are foundational to me. They are a moment I shared with my father, in a ballpark, more than 40 years ago. Truth – to the extent there is just one or to the extent it has been bent by the ravages of time – is secondary, at best.

And now that I find myself solidly into my sixth decade, with my father strongly – in not a bit more slowly – into his ninth, with my son sprinting through his third, baseball seems to have taken on even greater importance in our collective lives. The sheer number of games we have watched together – on television, in the stands, or on our respective couches texting back and forth – is innumerable. Baseball is our lingua franca. Baseball is our shared love.

My grandfather – that stout man of few words but an iron will – taught my father about baseball, with a brief pit stop at stickball. My father, in turn, taught me the game, refusing to make an analogous pit stop at t-ball. So, upon having a son of my own, I felt it a familial obligation to teach him the game.

Truth be told, he took to it – as both a player and as a fan – considerably more quickly than his forefathers. So now we have three generations who adore the game, who argue about the game, who are fanatical about the game. And who love nothing more than being together, at the game.

A few years back I was fortunate enough to bring my father to his first World Series. The man had lived 77 years, but never attended the Fall Classic. It was Game 3 of the 2018 edition, and we got there early to take in all the pomp and circumstance. Little did we know that we would still be sitting in our seats more than nine hours later. My dad, loving every minute, joked that he got two games in one. We were rooting for the Red Sox, but couldn’t help but cheer when Max Muncy won the game for the Dodgers with a home run in the bottom of the 18th inning.

Two nights later, I brought my son to Game 5, and we watched our beloved Boston team win the World Series together. Players go full careers without winning the World Series, but they have fame and riches to fall back on. Fathers and sons go generations without watching their favorite team win the World Series, with nothing but sorrow and woe to show for it. For me, to be able to share that moment with my son, after sharing a similar moment with my father, was truly the pinnacle of my being a baseball father and son. 

2018 World Series — Game 3 with Dad / Game 5 with Son

Since that time, I have attended more games with my father and son (both together and apart). In fact, before my boy left for college, we did a Midwest run from Chicago through Cincinnati and Cleveland, and then finished it off with a game down in Anaheim, just to get our fill before he left the nest.

And while my son has been away, I have taken my dad, and his Dodger-loving wife, to games at Chavez Ravine. My dad used to take me to games, but now I live in the liminal space where I now do the taking – I bring my dad and I bring my son – and I love it! Bringing them to games is one of the pure pleasures in my life.

A few months back I got a wild idea. My dad had never seen my son’s college, and had not been to Wrigley Field in many years. My son never misses an opportunity for me to visit, or to take him to a game. So off we went to Madison, with a drive down to Chicago to visit the Friendly Confines.

For reasons that are too ineffable to articulate, Wrigley Field is my happy place. I have visited well over 30 major league parks and all but one of the current stadiums. And when I want some joy, a relaxing time, and just pure happiness, I find my way to the corner of Clark and Addison on the North Side of Chicago. The people in Wrigleyville, the atmosphere outside the stadium, the fans inside, the 7th inning stretch, and “Go Cubs Go” after each Cubbies victory, simply make me smile. So, when afforded the opportunity to share that delight with my father and son (and my daughter as well), I couldn’t pass it up.

Unfortunately, the day we chose was unlike any other I have ever experienced at a Cubs game. We encountered snow flurries on our drive into town, and then braved 41 degrees with a light wind out to right. The sun never came out, and Wrigleyville was muted. The Dodgers beat the Cubs, which was good for our hometown rooting, but denied us my and my daughter’s favorite after-game song. We needed to rush out to make sure we didn’t miss our flight home, so we didn’t get to enjoy a 10th inning libation at the Cubby Bear. It was quick and dirty at Wrigley. And it was spectacular.

Braving the cold at Wrigley Field (Dodgers won, so no “Go Cubs Go”) / April, 2023

Nothing in life – including life itself – is guaranteed. I have learned that lesson the hard way time and again. So it is imperative that we seize the moments, the experiences, that will reside deep in our memories for years to come. Feelings of mortality force you to embrace the now; and I believe it is my obligation to live those words as much as I write them.

Neither my father nor my son are getting any younger (none of us are). That means that one of them cannot do as much with me as he used to, while the other simply may be less willing. So when you have that constant, that glue, that holds relationships together, you preserve it for as long as possible. Those constants create common ground, and help find off-ramps and detours when conversations and relationships could otherwise go off the rails. Baseball is that for me – and for my father and my son.

People who know me know how much I love the game. But with my father and son, it is intrinsic – it is part of who we are, part of what we are. Baseball is a warm blanket in which we wrap each other. For my dad, my son, and me, baseball is, quite simply, home.

I have been a father for more than two decades. My kids make me laugh and make me cry. They swell my heart and fill me with pride, in everything they do. But my true delight is when my son, after all these years, grabs two gloves and a ball, and like Ray Kinsella in the final moments of Field of Dreams asks: “Dad, you wanna have a catch?”

HAPPY FATHER’S DAY and PLAY BALL!!

Are the Red Sox Good?

My son, who in his 20 years orbiting the sun has known essentially nothing but triumph for our beloved Red Sox, remains an eternal optimist. Every year, he views the team through the prism of inevitable success. Pitching woes? Those will be solved when Chris Sale comes back. Hitting woes? Triston Casas will be the next great slugger. Shaky defense? Kiké can play anywhere.

But for me, even with four World Series rings in the last twenty years, I still harken back to 1978, and 1986, and 2003, and 2011, and many years in between. The Red Sox are always the sword of Damocles hanging over my head. I try to enjoy the wins and the championships, but I have been burned just too often. Hell, in 2004, I was counting Cardinals batters starting in the fifth inning of Game 4, knowing that their lineup was extremely formidable, and if they won Game 4, why couldn’t the Red Birds run off four straight like the Red Sox did in the previous series? Simply put, I never feel “good” about this team.

Which brings us to the 2023 squad. Coming into this season, there were many unknowns, and many distractions. Losing Xander Bogaerts to the Padres was most decidedly not made better by signing Rafael Devers to a long-term extension (they should have signed both). Having a catching tandem where one guy can catch and throw and the other guy can hit, but neither can do both, didn’t feel like a recipe for success after years of Christian Vázquez’s steady stewardship. And adding the aged (and decaying?) Kenley Jansen to the back of the bullpen for two years and $32 million didn’t seem like a good use of resources nor good for our collective heart health (this, of course, was a wrong assessment).

But the Red Sox have surprised many in the ultra-competitive AL East. We are just under the quarter mark on the season, and the BoSox are winning at a .568 clip, a 92-win pace*. Sure, that is only good for fourth place in this division, but this division may send four teams to the playoffs. So, that will play. But here is the question: Are the Red Sox good?

The answer to that question truly depends on when and where you are looking. If you are judging the team while sitting in the Fenway bleachers in the top of the first inning, you may have an entirely different view than if you are sitting in those same seats in the bottom of the ninth. Your opinion will vary depending on whether the defense is on the field, or batters are at the plate. The Red Sox — in this age of the universal designated hitter — are truly two different teams. Let’s take a look, starting with ugly:

PITCHING:

Runs Allowed/Game5.194th worst
Hits Allowed3304th worst
ERA4.974th worst
ERA+95Tied for 4th worst
WHIP1.3534th worst
HR Allowed495th worst

It’s tough sledding when you are just above the A’s and the Royals, both of whom are vying for record-setting ineptitude this season, and the White Sox, who have been a dumpster fire on the South Side. There is some good news to be found in their arms, as the team has the eighth-best bullpen ERA and is tied for the fifth-most saves in the AL. But 37 games into the season has taught that as currently constructed, the Red Sox pitching may prove to be their downfall.

But now we get to the good:

HITTING:

Runs/Game5.703rd best
Runs2113rd best
Hits344Tied for 1st place
Doubles821st place
Home Runs483rd best
Batting Avg..2702nd best
OPS.7902nd best
OPS+1133rd best

It’s pretty solid when you are competing with a Rays team that has won 80 percent of its games and is leading the league in nearly every offensive category, and with the surprising Rangers, who have found a brand new alchemy under manager Bruce Bochy.

DEFENSE:

The Red Sox defense is the perfect love child of their offense and pitching. How else do you get a team that is fourth in the league in assists, but also third worst in the league in errors? They are in fourth place for the most double plays, but have the third-worst fielding percentage. Just to put a button on this bizarre defensive unit, the Red Sox are below league average at catcher, second base, third base, shortstop (where they are in last place), and left field. But they have the best league-wide fielding percentage in center field and in right. They are just plain weird.

TOTAL PACKAGE:

So who is this team? Which version is real? The better question is which side of the ball will revert to the mean? If James Paxton and Garrett Whitlock can come off the IL and stabilize the rotation; if Sale can stop being Jekyll and Hyde and have a run of consistency; if Corey Kluber could even be a shadow of “The Klubot”; if Brayan Bello finally lives up to the hype; then the Red Sox have a chance to play well into October. But, if even one or two of the above-referenced puzzle pieces doesn’t perform up to snuff, it could be another last-place finish, with the AL East getting four teams into the playoffs and the Red Sox on the outside looking in.

You can say this: This team is fun to watch. They already have 14 come-from-behind wins. Alex Verdugo already has three walk-off hits. They came back from a six-run deficit to the Orioles and a four-run deficit to the Angels. This is a team that doesn’t quit; they grind out at-bats and grind down pitchers. And, despite how bad the pitching has been overall, they are 16-0 when leading after six innings, and 18-0 when leading after eight. So maybe something is there.

When watching the Red Sox, my blood pressure will always rise and fall like the team’s win probability chart. But as I have aged, I have adjusted so that my happiness is not predicated on the team’s success. So I will tune in all summer long (and hopefully into the fall). I will never feel “good” about their prospects, and I will always pass along my pessimism to my son, who will refute my misgivings with stats and vibes, and we will continue this lifelong obsession that has taken over at least three generations of our family.

But will we ever truly know: Are the Red Sox good?

PLAY BALL!!

*All statistics current as of May 10, 2023.

RED Hare Running / WHITE & BLUE Hair Cheering: A Very Special Patriots’ Day

As a child of parents who grew up in Boston, the city holds a special place in our ancestral heart. As multi-generation Red Sox fans, the team holds a special place in our familial heart. As a two-decade runner and marathon finisher, the Boston Marathon holds a special place in my beating heart. And as someone who has tragically lost people too young, the 2013 Marathon bombing holds a special place in my broken heart.

For all of the reasons above, Patriots’ Day in Boston is just plain special. So, when I got the message that one of my son’s best friends qualified for this year’s Boston Marathon – the 10-year anniversary of the bombing – the trip was booked post-haste.

Because the family of the boy – er, man – who would be running the race had never been to Fenway Park, I had another opportunity to present my “Billy Crystal Moment.” That is the moment when you see the stadium, in all its grace and glory, for the first time. I presented this moment to my wife and daughters last year. And this year I was given the chance to do it for a whole new group. Few things give me more pleasure than leading people down the concourse on the third base side, walking them out to the main aisle, and then having them start by looking left and then sweeping their gaze to the right to take in the entirety of “America’s Most Beloved Ballpark.”

My buddy said: “Few things in life live up to the hype…this place lives up to the hype.” I cannot tell you how happy that makes me. 

This group of eleven then made our way to Loge Box 102 for the pregame festivities. To begin, the 2013 World Series team was honored. Who doesn’t get a thrill and a chill when post-bombing (“this is our fucking city”), 2004 ALCS, and 2007 & 2013 World Series hero (and now Hall of Famer) David Ortiz takes the field? Who didn’t sing along when “Three Little Birds” played as they introduced “The Flyin’ Hawaiian” Shane Victorino? And who didn’t chuckle when Stephen Drew was met with light applause? For Red Sox fans, this was a lovely jaunt down memory lane.

But after the “Band of Bearded Brothers” – the players who put the city on their back a decade ago – were announced, the real honors were bestowed. The Red Sox brought out special guests to throw out first pitches – all of whom are related to the 2013 bombing:

  • Carlos Arredondo, the marathon spectator in the cowboy hat who rushed to the aid of bombing victims, with his wife, Melida.
  • A family friend of fallen Boston police Sgt. Dennis “DJ” Simmonds, who died of injuries he suffered during a shootout with the bombers.
  • Bill Campbell, the brother of bombing victim Krystle Campbell, and his son, William.
  • Henry and Jane Richard, the siblings of bombing victim Martin Richard.

It was the last two people introduced who brought on the waterworks. After the bombing, this photo of 8-year old Martin circulated on the internet:

Martin and his family stood close to the finish line that fateful day, as Martin and his brother loved the race – a race that they vowed to one day run. The Richard family suffered too much that day: Mother Denise lost an eye; Father Bill blew out an eardrum; and Sister Jane lost a leg. Brother Henry, with just scrapes and bruises, lost his best friend.  

Last year, Henry ran the marathon wearing an “MR8” singlet, representing the Martin Richard Foundation that his family founded after the horror of 2013. But Henry was not done. This year, he led a team of Martin’s friends – all of whom are now 18 and thus eligible to run the marathon – as a tribute to the boy they all loved. 

On the field on Sunday, Henry threw out a first pitch to Jane. The Red Sox beat the Angels. Our friends made it on the jumbotron in the 5th inning, and my kids and I did the same during “Sweet Caroline.” And Rafael Devers tossed a ball to my son. What a day at The Fens. 

The visit to Fenway, the 2013 celebration, the game and the hot dogs, were all just a prelude to the main event: Patriots’ Day.

At 7am our runner boarded his shuttle in Boston Common to the start line in Hopkinton. A group of us followed a few hours later, catching him in Framingham – but not before we were treated to an Eliud Kipchoge sighting (if you don’t know, look him up). At first there was a smattering of runners; but then there were thousands pounding their way through this tiny hamlet in the rain. Craning our necks to find our guy amongst the horde of runners was an exercise in stress and excitement the likes of which I have never experienced. And then he appeared – right in the middle of the street. We saw him, he saw us, and then I cried. And then I ran a few hundred yards alongside him because, well, I have no idea why. 

We got back in the car, drove through Wellesley, Newton, Brookline, and back to Copley Square where we waited in the drizzle and then rain. The police wouldn’t let us near the finish line, so we watched the television feed on our phones, and screamed as he ran right through the camera at the finish line, a giant smile on his face. A few minutes later we all hooked up. It was considerably more emotional than I ever imagined.

Before this little redhead – who I have known since he was two – crushed the Boston Marathon in 2:45, he was the ever-reliable leadoff hitter and second baseman on a travel team that I managed for years. I coached this boy from the time he was Martin Richard’s age, and never did I have a more coachable kid; maybe never did I have a better kid. He is not my son, but standing in the rain in the heart of Boston, I could not have been more proud if he was. I thought of Martin, and his friends running for him, and my son hugging his buddy after 26.2 arduous miles, and I thought: But for the grace of G-d… And then I cried.

Baseball is and has been my bedrock, my foundation. It’s what I can talk to my father and son about, whenever and wherever. It’s where I can bring friends and family and allow them to revel in the beauty of a game that I never take for granted. It’s when, as a coach, I was able to build lasting friendships and maybe, just for a moment – or for a lifetime – have a positive impact of someone’s life.

Truth be told, I wasn’t thinking these deep thoughts as I sat in the airport ready to head home to work and bills and more quotidian matters. But I was thinking about how terrific the weekend had been. I was thinking about how special it was to introduce this group to Fenway Park, and to be there with my son and daughter, and how we cheered uncontrollably on the streets as our runner passed us by and met us afterwards, and how it was through baseball that I truly forged my relationship with this kid, and his father, and his entire family (grandparents included). And then I received a text from the marathoner. Amongst the many amazing words he wrote, he said the following: “Don’t think I would be crossing the finish line today if it wasn’t for you.”

And then I cried.

PLAY BALL!!