Category: Fandom

About two weeks ago, voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of American received their Hall of Fame ballots for 2026. Here are the candidates:

Last week, on the Effectively Wild podcast, Meg Rowley and Ben Lindbergh had Jay Jaffe on as their guest. For the uninitiated, Jay Jaffe is a Senior Writer at Fangraphs, author of the book The Cooperstown Casebook, and is the creator of the JAWS statistic for quantifying a player’s Hall of Fame credentials. When you have a Hall of Fame question, Jay is the first person you go to.

Meg and Ben wanted to talk to Jay about the upcoming class, and who has a chance to make it to the podium at the Clark Sports Center in Cooperstown, New York next July. It is a great listen.

As they were all talking, two names caught my ear: Félix Hernández and Cole Hamels. Not only are they listed consecutively on this year’s ballot, they are right next to each other in Hall of Fame qualifications. Let’s take a look:

King Félix pitched for 15 seasons, all with the Seattle Mariners. Hamels also threw for 15 seasons, but with four clubs (if you count his 3-1/3 innings with Atlanta in the Covid-shortened 2020 year, his last).

Hernández finished with a 3.42 ERA, Hamels, 3.43.

Hernández won 169 games, six better than Hamels’ 163.

From an ERA+ perspective, Hamels wins the battle 123 to 117.

Hamels struck out 36 more batters than Hernández (2,560-2,524), which amounts to a mere two additional strike outs per season. Essentially the same. And Hernández had more walks (805) than Hamels (767). But, again, over 15 seasons, it is about two per year, so…the same.

Over their 15-year careers, Hernández threw 31 more innings. So, again, about the same.

Hamels was an integral part of the Phillies rotation that won the 2008 World Series, winning both the Championship Series and World Series MVP awards. King Félix never pitched in the post-season (not his fault). But he did win a Cy Young Award (in 2010) and two ERA titles (2010, 2014), all of which eluded Hamels.

And yet, somehow, when you add all of these numbers together, Hamels ended his career with nearly nine more bWAR (59.0 vs. 49.8). But, that belies the fact that over at Fangraphs, Félix actually bests Hamels 54.0 to 51.6. If one didn’t throw with his left hand in the National League (for most of his career) and the other with his right hand in the American League, you would think they are the same pitcher.

With those stats in hand, let’s take a look at Jaffe’s Hall of Fame qualifications. As a reminder, per JAWS, the typical HOF pitcher has the following credentials:

72.9 bWAR // 49.8 seven-year peak bWAR // 61.3 JAWS score // 4.5 bWAR/162

Hamels only makes the grade in bWAR/162 (he has 4.7). As stated above, his bWAR is 59.0, his seven-year peak is only 37.4, and his JAWS score is 48.2.

Hernández fails in all of the categories: 49.8 bWAR, 38.5 seven-year peak, 44.1 JAWS, and 4.0 bWAR/162.

Using other metrics makes the case even worse. Just once did Hamels lead the league in any category (WHIP, in 2008), while Hernández did so just 28 times. That number is 40 for the average Hall of Famer. Bill James’ Hall of Fame Monitor (where 100 makes you a likely entrant), has Hernández at 67 and Hamels at 57. And James’ HOF Standards, where 50 is an average Hall of Famer, Hernández scores 31, while Hamels comes in at 33.

None of the above should in any way detract from either of their brilliant careers. They both have places in the Hall of “Very Good.” Neither ever has to buy a drink in their respective home towns. Hernández is in the Mariners Hall of Fame, and it just a matter of time until Hamels is on the Phillies Wall of Fame.

And while it would be great if players this similar could both be inducted and give speeches on the same day, that just doesn’t seem likely in this case. In fact, there is a chance that no one gives a speech this July, but more about that in another column to come.

PLAY BALL!!

Last week I wrote about baseball history that took place on October 14^th. I started 120 years ago, and worked my way up to 1998. But as a heady reader pointed out to me, I missed a huge moment (upon reflection, I actually missed two, but more about the second one all the way at the bottom).

On October 14, 1992, at Fulton County Stadium in Atlanta, history was being written and re-written. Some readers – including those who read Wikipedia – will recall “The Slide.” But before we get to the slide, we need the prologue.

The 1992 National League Championship Series pitted the Atlanta Braves against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates were in the NLCS for the third straight year, having yet to make it to the World Series. The Braves were hoping to make it back to the Fall Classic after losing to the Minnesota Twins in a 10-inning thriller in Game 7 of the 1991 version.

Atlanta won Games 1 and 2 at home, before the series traveled to Pittsburgh. The Pirates won Game 3, but dropped Game 4, and found themselves on the brink of elimination…again. A 7-1 victory at home in Game 5, and a 13-4 wipeout in Game 6 in Atlanta, set the stage for yet another Game 7 showdown.

The Pirates took a 1-0 lead in the top of the first, and padded that with another run in the sixth. Doug Drabek, pitching the game of his life, took a shutout into the ninth inning. Terry Pendleton, the 1991 NL MVP – and 1992 NL MVP runner-up – led off the bottom of the ninth with a double. David Justice then hit a hard grounder that was booted by second baseman José Lind – who, ironically, would go on to win the Gold Glove. With runners on the corners and no outs, Drabek walked Sid Bream on four pitches to load the bases, put the tying run in scoring position, and the winning run on base.

Future Hall of Fame manager Jim Leyland came out and replaced Drabek with closer Stan Belinda. Ron Gant greeted Belinda with a deep sacrifice fly to left fielder Barry Bonds, cutting the lead in half. The next batter, Damon Berryhill, took a 3-1 offering that appeared to be strike two, but was called ball four, re-loading the bases. Future Hall of Fame manager Bobby Cox called on Brian Hunter to hit for second baseman Rafael Belliard. Two pitches later, Hunter had popped out to second, and now the Braves were down to their final out. If Pittsburgh could escape the jam, Cox would become the first MLB manager to ever lose two playoff series in which his teams previously led 3-1 (his Blue Jays gave up a 3-1 lead and the pennant to the Kansas City Royals in 1985). Desperate times call for desperate measures. So Cox called upon Francisco Cabrera to pinch hit for pitcher Jeff Reardon. Cabrera had 11 plate appearances all season (3-for-10 with a walk), and he was 0-for-1 in this series. So what did he do? He promptly lined a 2-1 pitch to left field, scoring Justice from third to tie the game. Barry Bonds, who at this point in his career had won two Gold Gloves, and was about to win his third, and would go on to win eight in all, scooped up the ball in left field. Bonds’ throw was just to the right of home plate, and catcher Mike LaValliere needed to reach to catch it and then swipe his tag at the sliding Bream. There is no sprint speed records for 1992, but Bream – he of the five previous knee surgeries and chronic knee pain – was known to be one of the slowest runners in the game. And yet, somehow, some way, his all-out hustle and perfectly executed slide beat LaValliere’s tag by microseconds.

When the play ended and the Braves mobbed Bream at and on the plate, Pirates center fielder Andy Van Slyke could be seen sitting in the outfield watching the celebration unfold. Prior to the 2-1 pitch, Van Slyke motioned for Bonds to come in a few steps to be ready to make a play at home. As legend has it, the often mercurial Bonds flipped Van Slyke the bird and remained in his previous position.

Game 7 of the 1992 NLCS remains the first and only time in MLB history that a team was one out away of losing a deciding game and yet won that game on the last pitch (for example: Bill Mazeroski hit his famous homer in a tie game; Joe Carter’s homer won the 1993 World Series, but it was only Game 6; Edgar Martinez’s “The Double” happened with no outs).

Even though this writer forgot “The Slide” in my original article, the Atlanta 400 Baseball Fan Club never forgets, and they get together at the site of home plate at the former Fulton County Stadium each year to celebrate and pay homage to Bream’s slide and the team’s pennant victory.

PLAY BALL!!

Every year October 14^th auspiciously falls smack dab in the middle of the baseball playoffs. As such, there have been many great moments that have occurred on his date. To wit:

A mere 120 years ago, on October 14, 1905, Christy Mathewson threw a shutout against the New York Giants to give the Philadelphia Athletics the World Series crown.

We all recall that the Chicago Cubs broke a 108-year World Series drought with their victory over Cleveland in 2016. On this day in 1908, that streak began. The Cubs defeated the Detroit Tigers 2-0 in Game 5 in front of the smallest crowd (6,210) in World Series history to take home the title.

On the same day in 1929, the Philadelphia A’s turned the tables on the Cubs, scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to win Game 5 and the World Series.

On this day in 1964, the M&M boys were back at it again, with Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle hitting back-to-back homers (on consecutive pitches) off the Cardinals’ Curt Simmons to even that World Series at three games apiece. The Cardinals would go on to win the whole thing the next day.

The next year on this date, Sandy Koufax shutout the Minnesota Twins 2-0, giving us just three hits while striking out ten, to give the Dodgers a World Series title. It was his second shutout of that Fall Classic (he won Game 5 three days earlier, giving up just four hits while striking out ten).

On October 14, 1969, Tommy Agee became a household name with not one, but two, amazing catches (one in left center and one in right center), and hit a homer, in Game 3 of the World Series that the “Amazin’ Mets” would go on to win in five games.

The Mets would be back in the World Series four years later against the Athletics. On this day, in Game 2, Willie Mays recorded his final major league base hit (a run-scoring single to center off Rollie Fingers in the 12^th inning).

Fifty years ago today, home plate umpire Larry Barnett made a name for himself when he decreed that Cincinnati Reds’ Ed Armbrister did not interfere with Boston’s Carlton Fisk when he ran into the catcher after attempting a sacrifice bunt. Fisk threw the ball into center field, allowing Cesar Geronimo to move to third, from where he would eventually score the winning run in Game 3 of what many still believe to be the greatest World Series ever played.

Exactly one year later, Chris Chambliss hit a ninth inning home run off Kansas City’s Mark Littell to give the New York Yankees their first pennant since 1964. As you may recall, the crowd stormed the field, and Chambliss barely survived his trip around the bases. It is hard to even imagine such a scene today.

On this day in 1984, the legend of Kirk Gibson may have been born (not really, insofar as he had already won the ALCS MVP while going 5-for-13 with one homer). On October 14^th, Gibby hit two home runs and drove in five in Detroit’s clinching Game 5 victory over the San Diego Padres. Four years and a day later (October 15, 1988) Gibby truly became a legend.

The next year, famed broadcaster Jack Buck proclaimed, “Go crazy folks, go crazy,” when Ozzie Smith lifted a 2-1 pitch down the right field line for a game-winning homer in Game 5 of the 1985 NLCS at the famed Busch Stadium.

Today being an off day in the ALCS between the Seattle and Toronto, it is fitting to note that on this day in 1992 the Blue Jays became the first Canadian team to reach the World Series, after defeating the then-Oakland Athletics 9-2.

Later that night, the Pittsburgh Pirates took a 2-0 lead into the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 7 of the NLCS against the Atlanta Braves. It is worth reliving this stanza. Doug Drabek gave up a lead off double to Terry Pendleton (MVP in 1991; runner-up in 1992). David Justice then reached on a fielding error by second baseman José Lind. Sid Bream walked to load the bases. Pirates manager Jim Leyland replaced Drabek with Stan Belinda. Ron Gant then hit a deep drive to left to score Pendleton from third and make it a 2-1 game. Catcher Damon Berryhill walked to reload the bases. Brian Hunter, needing just a lazy flyball to tie the game, instead popped out to second. Up came Francisco Cabrera. Cabrera, who had eleven plate appearances all season, made his second of the post-season. He proceeded to line a 2-1 pitch to left, scoring Justice, with Bream chugging behind him. Barry Bonds – winner of eight Gold Gloves – threw home late, and Bream scored the pennant-winning run. It has become known in Atlanta baseball history as “The Slide.”

In 1998, the Padres cliched the right to play in their first World Series by defeating the Braves 5-0. They would then be swept by the Yankees in a series that was actually closer than the final verdict would reflect.

On October 14, 2015, with two on and two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning of a 3-3 Game 5 of the ALDS, José Bautista hit the second biggest home run in Toronto Blue Jays’ history (Joe Carter hit the biggest in 1993), which will always be remembered for Bautista’s epic bat flip.

Oh, and on this day in 1972, Gene Tenace became the first player to ever homer in his first two World Series at-bats, leading the A’s to a Game 1 victory over the Reds. According to family lore, my father witnessed these home runs on a television in the hospital’s waiting room while my mother gave birth to me.

PLAY BALL!!

On Episode 2367 of the Effectively Wild podcast, host Ben Lindbergh made reference to David Laurila’s newsletter and his weekly trivia quiz. One question revolved around the three pitchers who have won at least 100 games for the Expos/Nationals franchise. Ben got the first two, and essentially got the third, but could not place the name. The name that eluded him was Steve Rogers.

The right-handed pitcher was originally selected by the New York Yankees in the 60^th round of the 1967 draft. Instead, he elected to attend the University of Tulsa, where he helped the team get to the Men’s College Baseball World Series his sophomore year. Rogers played all four seasons, graduating with a degree in petroleum engineering. But rather than drilling for oil, he again registered for the MLB draft, where the Expos took him with the fourth pick in 1971.

Just about two years later he made his debut, throwing eight innings against the Astros in the famed Astrodome, allowing two runs on four hits, getting a no decision on a game that went ten innings.

Rogers pitched from 1973 to 1985, but from 1973 to 1983, he was one of the five best pitchers in baseball. As Ben referenced on the podcast, those top five pitchers – as measured by Fangraphs WAR – were Steve Carlton, Bert Blyleven, Nolan Ryan, Gaylord Perry, and Rogers. Only one of these guys is not in the Hall of Fame. Just to add to the list, after Rogers, you have Phil Niekro, Tom Seaver, and Don Sutton – Hall of Famers, all.

In 1973, Rogers came in second in Rookie of the Year voting (to Gary Matthews). In 1974, he was named an All-Star for the first time.

Between 1980 and 1983, Rogers was a top-five finalist for the Cy Young Award three times. In 1982, he came in second to Carlton.

From 1973 to 1984, he had only one season (1976) when he didn’t have double-digit wins, and yet he never won twenty games (he topped out at 19 in 1982). From 1973 to 1983, he had an ERA of 3.07 while winning 150 games and accruing 46.3 bWAR. All told, Rogers was an All-Star five different times, always among the best of the best.

As a National League pitcher before the universal designated hitter, Rogers wasn’t much of a batsman, hitting .138 with in 881 career at-bats. Amongst his 122 hits, he had eight doubles and two triples, but no home runs.

Rogers is not a Hall of Famer by any rational or analytical metric. His statistics are about 50% of what is required to be elected (his career is most similar to Burt Hooten, another blast from the ‘80s past). And, true to form, in 1991, his first (and only) year on the ballot, he failed to receive even a single vote. Fans north of the border may view that as a bit harsh.

Because Rogers toed the rubber during a golden age of pitchers (many of whom are enshrined in the Hall of Fame), he may not be that memorable to anyone other than his family and those of us who grew up assiduously watching baseball in the eighties. Unfortunately, Rogers may be best remembered for giving up a game-changing, and ultimately game-winning, home run to Rick Monday in Game 5 of the 1981 National League Championship Series.

But that on at-bat should not detract from a career of durability and viability that spanned two decades and brought smiles to the faces of many a Canadian.

CURT SCHILLING

Curt Schilling was selected out of Yavapai College in the second round of the 1986 MLB draft by the Boston Red Sox. In July of 1988, Boston traded Schilling, along with outfielder Brady Anderson, to the Orioles in return for veteran pitcher Mike Boddicker. Ironically, Schilling made his major league debut just five weeks later — throwing seven innings of six-hit/three-run ball in a Baltimore win against those same Red Sox.

In a little-remembered transaction, Baltimore traded Schilling to the Houston Astros in January of 1991. He threw 75-2/3 innings for the Astros over 56 games out of the pen, before Houston sent Schilling to Philadelphia in return for Jason Grimsley. Schilling went on to re-sign with the Phillies when he became a free agent at the end of the 1995 season. And it was in Philadelphia where Schilling became a star. In his first eight years in the City of Brotherly Love, Schilling won 95 games with a 3.31 ERA and a 127 ERA+. He went to three All-Star games (1997-1999), twice led the league in complete games, and twice led the league in strikeouts.

At the trade deadline in 2000, Philadelphia shipped Schilling to the Arizona Diamondbacks, where he teamed with Randy Johnson to become one of the best 1-2 combinations in the history of the sport. In 2001, Schilling went 4-0 over the NLCS and the World Series, with a 1.12 ERA, and 56 strikeouts against only six walks. Schilling famously started Game 7 of that Fall Classic, going 7-1/3 innings, leaving the game with the D’Backs trailing 2-1. Miguel Batista came in to record one out, and then Johnson got the next four Yankee batters to set up Luis Gonzalez’s dramatic walk-off single in the bottom of the ninth. Johnson and Schilling were honored as World Series Co-MVPs.

At the end of the 2003 season, over Thanksgiving dinner at Schilling’s Arizona home, Theo Epstein, the Red Sox’ general manager, convinced Schilling to waive his no-trade clause and come back to where it all started: Boston. It worked. And in 2004, the big righty helped Boston “reverse the curse” and win their first World Series in 86 years. In four games over that post-season, Schill went 3-1, including the dramatic “Bloody Sock” Game 6 of the ALCS against the Yankees. He followed that up with a win in Game 2 of the World Series against the Cardinals.

Schilling won three more games in the 2007 post-season, helping the Red Sox win their second World Series in four years. A shoulder injury ended his career after that 2007 season. When all the ink was dry, Schilling had a career record of 216-146, an ERA of 3.46, an ERA+ of 127, and is one of 20 pitchers to record 3,000 strikeouts (3,116). His career bWAR sits at 79.5.

JUSTIN VERLANDER

The Detroit Tigers selected Justin Verlander with the second overall pick in the 2004 draft out of Old Dominion University in Virginia. He made his major league debut 13 months later against Cleveland, striking out four, while giving up seven hits and four earned runs over 5-1/3 innings. He pitched in only one other game that year, going six innings and giving up five earned runs. When the 2005 season ended, Verlander had an 0-2 record, a 7.15 ERA, and a total of seven strikeouts to his name.

It didn’t take long for the future Hall of Famer to hit his stride. In 2006, Verlander went at least six innings in 22 of his first 24 starts, going 15-6. For the season, he went 17-9 with a 3.63 ERA and 124 strikeouts. That would be the last time he had less than 150 strikeouts in a season for next eight years, including leading the league in 2009 (269), 2011 (250), 2012 (239). When this streak broke in 2015 (only 113 Ks in 20 games), he came back in 2016 to again lead the league with 254, and a league-leading 7.4 bWAR. That was good enough to garner him his second Cy Young runner-up, which was in addition to his Cy Young and MVP wins in 2011.

At the trade deadline in 2017, Detroit sent Verlander to the Houston Astros for three players that didn’t amount to much (a pitcher who never made the big leagues, Daz Cameron (career -1.7 bWAR), and Jake Rogers (2.6 bWAR)). After arriving in Houston, Verlander went 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA, with 43 strikeouts against five walks. In the post-season, he went 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA, helping the Astros beat the Dodgers to win the World Series.

In 2018, he had a career-high 290 strikeouts in 214 innings, and once-again was the Cy Young runner-up (to Blake Snell). It was the sixth time he finished in the top five.

In 2019, after signing a 2-year, $66 million contract to stay with Houston, he won 21 games with a 2.58 ERA. He was an All-Star for the eighth time and won his second Cy Young Award. And, oh-by-the-way, he also threw his third career no-hitter, shutting down the Blue Jays in Toronto. After such a fantastic regular season, Verlander was off his game in the playoffs, going 1-4 with a 4.33 ERA. He lost both Games 2 and 6 of the World Series, which the Astros eventually lost in seven games to the Washington Nationals (a series in which every game was won by the visiting team).

Verlander’s Covid-shortened 2020 season was even shorter due to a groin injury and then Tommy John surgery. He didn’t pitch in 2021. But he came roaring back in 2022, going 18-4 with a career-best 1.75 ERA. He struck out 185 batters in just 175 innings. For his efforts, he was the American League Comeback Player of the Year, and won his third Cy Young Award.

After the 2022 season, Verlander signed a two-year, $86.7 million contract with the Mets. But he made only 16 starts in Queens before being shipped back to Houston, where he went 7-3 over eleven starts. In the post-season, he went 1-1 with one no-decision, while the Astros fell to the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers.

In 2024, Verlander moved into the top-ten in career strikeouts, passing Greg Maddux. He also won his 260^th career game.

Verlander signed with the San Francisco Giants for the 2025 season, hoping to somehow eek out the final 38 wins he needs to become the 25^th pitcher to reach the 300-win plateau. As of this writing, he has added only three to the ledger, making the final 35 seem near impossible for the 42-year old hurler (who will be 43 on Opening Day next season).

As of this writing, Verlander has a career record of 265-158 with a 3.32 ERA, and ERA+ of 128, with 3,546 strikeouts. He has won two World Series, been a league MVP, ALCS MVP, won the Rookie of the Year. He has three no-hitters and won three Cy Youngs. He has accumulated 81.7 bWAR to date.

COMPARISON:

When you put these two careers side-by-side, and squint just a little bit, they look awfully similar. And Schilling, without question, was the better post-season performer. Verlander, as mentioned above, has more career black ink (79 vs. 42) and has more wins, more strikeouts, and a better ERA. However, it is how they have conducted themselves off the field and with the press that is the major separator. Schilling has no one to blame but himself for how he is viewed in the public sphere, while Verlander has gone about his career with class and respect every step of the way. Maybe not so similar after all.

PLAY BALL!!