A Look At The Best First Basemen Of All-Time

Fun fact, when I was 10 years old, my parents promised to buy me a first baseman’s mitt if I made my league’s all-star team. I did, so they did. It was a Rawlings Model RFM 35 with Keith Hernandez’s signature on the palm. So, the former Cardinal and Met holds a special place in my heart (even if he broke the same as part of the 1986 Mets squad, but I digress).

Hernandez has a strong case for the Hall of Fame, and that got me thinking about the greats of the game who played that/my position and how Hernandez compares to them.

The Top-10 players on the list of all-timers are all in the Hall of Fame, save for Albert Pujols, who should become the second unanimous entrant (along with Mariano Rivera) when he is on the ballot in 2028. His 101.3 bWAR is second only to the Iron Horse, whose 113.5 leads the way. The next eight are: Jimmie Foxx, Cap Anson, Roger Connor, Jeff Bagwell, Dan Brouthers, Frank Thomas, Johnny Mize, and Jim Thome.

Miguel Cabrera chimes in at #11, and he will become a Hall of Famer in 2029. Right behind him is Rafael Palmeiro, whose wave of a finger at the United States Congress while stating “I have never used steroids, period,” was undercut just weeks later when he tested positive for steroids. He need not make any plans to head to Central New York any time soon.

Behind Palmeiro will be this generation’s test for “Hall Worthy”: Joey Votto. He is a six-time All-Star and won the MVP in 2010. All of his Jay Jaffe’s JAWS and Bill James’ Hall of Fame Monitor/Standards measures are right at, just below, or just above Hall of Fame-level. Writers love him, he remains relevant as a guest broadcaster for NBC, and no one would balk at his induction.

Next is Paul Goldschmidt. Is he a Hall of Famer? Not to me, but his stats may say otherwise. He is a seven-time All-Star and, like Votto, won an MVP Award. And also like Votto, all of his Hall of Fame credentials are right on the line. He continues to play, so he continues to accrue numbers that will help his case five years after he retires.

Willie McCovey, Todd Helton, and Eddie Murray all have plaques in Cooperstown. Next is Freddie Freeman, who will be way higher on this list when his career ends, and should walk into the Hall. Mark McGwire would be in but for…

George Sisler and Hank Greenberg have had their days in the Hall of Fame sun. Then there is Bill Terry and Harmon Killebrew, inductees both. Sandwiched between these four players is Mr. Hernandez. Hernandez went on the ballot in 1996, and fell off nine years later when he only received 4.3% of the vote (a player needs at least 5% to continue).

Let’s take a look at how Hernandez measures up:

• Black Ink (led the league in a category): 14 (average Hall of Famer: 27)
• Grey Ink (top-10 in the league in a category): 118 (average HOF: 144)
• Hall of Fame Monitor: 86 (likely HOF: 100)
• Hall of Fame Standards: 32 (average HOF: 50)
• bWAR: 60.4 (average HOF at 1B: 65)
• 7-Year Peak bWAR: 41.3 (average HOF at 1B: 42.1)
• JAWS: 50.8 (average HOF at 1B: 53.5)
• bWAR/162: 4.7 (average HOF at 1B: 4.8)

All of the numbers above say that Hernandez is just below the borderline, and his failure to be inducted is warranted. But, as Bill wrote yesterday: “there has never been a first baseman who fielded the position the way he did, literally impacting opponents’ strategy.” His 11 Gold Gloves are a record for first baseman, and they were won consecutively from 1978 through 1988. In 17 seasons, the man committed 115 errors over nearly 20,000 chances. He finished with a .994 fielding percentage.

There is a reason I wanted his glove when I was 10 years old. And there is a reason more than 40 years later I want his skills at the plate, on the field, in the clubhouse, and now in the broadcast booth, to be recognized on a warm Sunday in Cooperstown. I may be biased, but that does not mean that I am wrong.

PLAY BALL!!